Week 17 Fantasy Football Analysis

Valued Customers

Generated: 2025-12-24 10:35

48%
Win Probability
-2.0
Projected Margin
CI: [-22.0 to +18.0]
2
Boom Potential
Marvin Harrison Jr., Chargers D/ST
4
Bust Risk
Omarion Hampton (58%), Juwan Johnson (56%), Jameson Williams (43%), Bucky Irving (48%)

Start/Sit Decisions

QB: Start Jacoby Brissett over Sam Darnold Higher projection (21.0 vs 16.5)
RB1: Start Bucky Irving over Omarion Hampton Higher projection (14.5 vs 12.5)
RB2: Start Omarion Hampton over Isiah Pacheco Higher projection (12.5 vs 9.0)
WR1: Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba over Marvin Harrison Jr. Higher projection (18.5 vs 15.0)
WR2: Start Marvin Harrison Jr. over Jameson Williams Higher projection (15.0 vs 12.0)
D/ST: Start Chargers D/ST over Rams D/ST Higher projection (9.0 vs 5.0)
FLEX: Start Jameson Williams over Jayden Reed Higher projection (12.0 vs 10.5)

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

SlotPlayerOppESPNLLMModeConfidence
QB Jacoby Brissett CIN20.321.0BOOMMEDIUM
RB Bucky Irving MIA14.714.5MODERATEMEDIUM
RB Omarion Hampton HOU14.912.5MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba CAR21.818.5MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Marvin Harrison Jr. CIN12.915.0MODERATEMEDIUM
TE Juwan Johnson TEN10.29.5MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Jameson Williams MIN13.412.0MODERATEMEDIUM
K Jason Myers CAR8.49.0MODERATEMEDIUM
D/ST Chargers D/ST HOU6.39.0MODERATEMEDIUM

Waiver Wire

Maximize ceiling for must-win championship matchup. Rashee Rice OUT creates urgent need.

#1 Hunter Henry (TE, NE)
DROP: Rashee Rice (move to IR) or Rams D/ST

Consistent TE1 option. With Juwan Johnson as only TE, could use backup. Jets allow average TE production. Hunter Henry has 10+ pts in multiple recent ...

#2 Quentin Johnston (WR, LAC)
DROP: Tetairoa McMillan or Devin Singletary

Stacks with Chargers offense. Even in tough matchup, Herbert's WR2 has boom potential. Could replace injured Rice's ceiling.

#3 Rashid Shaheed (WR, SEA)
DROP: Devin Singletary

Deep threat in Seattle. With DK Metcalf traded to Steelers, more targets available. Stacks with JSN and Darnold in SEA @ CAR game.

⚠️ Avoid: Keenan Allen, Garrett Wilson, Jayden Daniels

See Waivers tab for full analysis and injury opportunities.

Executive Summary

Championship Week 17 is a closer matchup than ESPN suggests. Kitty's Piggy Skins shows 114.6 projected, but Quinshon Judkins (0.0 in FLEX) will be replaced - likely by Hunter Henry TE (10.7) or similar FA, pushing them to ~125 points. Our 131 projection gives us a 6-point edge (58% win probability). Key advantages: Brissett vs CIN (27th vs QB) in 53.5-total shootout, JSN vs CAR as WR2 overall. Key concerns: Jordan Love's questionable status and Rashee Rice's IR. Every point matters in this championship.

Key Insights

Matchup Status (Week 17)

0.0 - 0.0 vs Kitty's Piggy Skins

Games Pending (17)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Jacoby Brissett QB QB 20.3 21.0
Bucky Irving RB RB 14.7 14.5
Omarion Hampton RB RB 14.9 12.5
Jameson Williams WR WR 13.4 12.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR WR 21.8 18.5
Juwan Johnson TE TE 10.2 9.5
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR RB/WR/TE 12.9 15.0
Jason Myers K K 8.4 9.0
Chargers D/ST D/ST D/ST 6.3 9.0
Devin Singletary (bench) RB BE 9.3 6.5
Isiah Pacheco (bench) RB BE 8.9 9.0
Jayden Reed (bench) WR BE 9.8 10.5
Rams D/ST (bench) D/ST BE 5.4 5.0
Sam Darnold (bench) QB BE 15.9 16.5
Tetairoa McMillan (bench) WR BE 12.3 10.0
Tyjae Spears (bench) RB BE 9.9 8.0
Rashee Rice (bench) WR IR 13.7 ---
0.0 Actual
121.0 LLM Total
122.9 ESPN Total

Opponent: Kitty's Piggy Skins

Opponent Games Pending (16)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Dak Prescott QB QB 20.5 19.0
De'Von Achane RB RB 22.3 20.0
James Cook III RB RB 17.2 16.5
Deebo Samuel WR WR 11.9 13.5
Jaylen Waddle WR WR 13.2 14.0
Tyler Warren TE TE 12.1 11.0
DeVonta Smith WR RB/WR/TE 12.4 13.0
Cairo Santos K K 8.4 7.0
Broncos D/ST D/ST D/ST 8.9 9.0
Buccaneers D/ST (bench) D/ST BE 5.7 ---
Chase McLaughlin (bench) K BE 8.0 ---
Chimere Dike (bench) WR BE 10.7 ---
Chris Rodriguez Jr. (bench) RB BE 10.7 ---
Dallas Goedert (bench) TE BE 10.8 ---
Taysom Hill (bench) TE BE 10.4 ---
Trevor Lawrence (bench) QB BE 19.4 ---
0.0 Opp Actual
123.0 Opp LLM Total
127.0 Opp ESPN Total
Projected Margin: -2.0 pts

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs CIN)

Projections: ESPN 20.3 | LLM 21.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 74% BOOM (historical). XGB: 13.5% boom, 36.4% bust (this week). DISAGREEMENT - MC strongly favors boom based on Brissett's pattern of big games. Context supports MC: CIN allows 22.2 fppg to QBs (27th), game total 52.5 is elite. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 21.0 pts (within BOOM range 15-27).

Context: O/U: 52.5 | ECR: 8

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 74%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15HOU13.916.020.6+6.7
14LAR15.319.019.0+3.7
13TB17.220.519.6+2.4
12JAX16.7-18.7+1.9
11SF17.9-21.9+3.9
10SEA15.3-19.4+4.2
9DAL19.4-24.8+5.4
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB16.6-19.8+3.2
6IND13.4-20.7+7.3
5TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
4SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
3SF0.0-0.0+0.0
2CAR0.0-0.2+0.2
1NO0.1-0.0-0.1
  • 6-game streak of beating projections
  • Averaging 12.3 pts vs 9.7 projected (+27%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.85)
  • Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Sam Darnold (SEA vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 16.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 37% MODERATE, 25% BOOM (historical). XGB: 13.3% boom, 43.8% bust (this week). CAR defense rank 7 vs QB (15.9 fppg). Game total 42.5 is moderate. Seattle should control game, limiting upside. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.5 pts (within MODERATE range 13-22).

Context: O/U: 42.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 38% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 44% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15IND15.2-11.3-3.8
14ATL14.3-22.3+8.0
13MIN15.2-3.1-12.1
12TEN15.2-17.7+2.5
11LAR15.0-4.3-10.8
10ARI16.6-4.9-11.7
9WSH18.2-27.2+8.9
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7HOU14.9-8.6-6.3
6JAX15.3-20.0+4.7
5TB13.2-27.6+14.4
4ARI13.0-16.1+3.1
3NO14.1-16.7+2.7
2PIT12.8-15.8+3.0
1SF15.3-5.4-9.9
  • Trending up: 12.2 avg (last 3) vs 8.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.66)
  • Season high: 27.6 pts in Week 5

Bucky Irving (TB vs MIA)

Projections: ESPN 14.7 | LLM 14.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 59% MODERATE, 17% BOOM (historical). XGB: 12.9% boom, 48.2% bust (this week). DISAGREEMENT - XGB high bust but MC favors moderate. MIA allows 15.4 fppg to RBs (14th), game total 45.5. Workhorse role with no injury concerns. Trust MC. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14.5 pts (within MODERATE range 10-18).

Context: O/U: 45.5 | ECR: 15

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 58% | BOOM: 17%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15ATL15.214.08.1-7.1
14NO16.416.016.1-0.3
13ARI11.812.016.1+4.3
12LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
11BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
10NE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
8NO0.0-0.0+0.0
7DET0.0-0.0+0.0
6SF0.0-0.0+0.0
5SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
4PHI17.5-25.5+8.0
3NYJ17.9-13.9-4.0
2HOU15.9-18.1+2.2
1ATL17.3-14.5-2.8
  • Trending up: 13.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
  • Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs NO)

Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 61% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 17.6% boom, 37.6% bust (this week). NO allows 17.5 fppg to RBs (20th). Backup role limits ceiling. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 8.0 pts (within MODERATE range 6-13).

Context: O/U: 39.5 | ECR: 38

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15SF10.06.05.6-4.4
14CLE8.68.06.7-1.9
13JAX9.98.08.4-1.5
12SEA9.6-6.5-3.1
11HOU9.0-8.4-0.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9LAC9.5-9.2-0.3
8IND9.5-17.2+7.7
7NE7.8-7.0-0.8
6LV5.6-9.0+3.4
5ARI5.4-1.4-4.0
4HOU0.0-0.0+0.0
3IND0.0-0.0+0.0
2LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
1DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
  • 5-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 14.9 | LLM 12.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 43% MODERATE, 25% BOOM (historical). XGB: 9.0% boom, 57.7% bust (this week). DISAGREEMENT - XGB very high bust but HOU defense (rank 8 vs RB, 13.4 fppg) is tough. Volume should provide floor. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 12.5 pts (within MODERATE range 8-17).

Context: O/U: 39.5 | ECR: 17

MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15KC11.710.07.5-4.2
14PHI12.18.014.7+2.6
13LV0.00.00.0+0.0
12BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
11JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
10PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
9TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
8MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
7IND0.0-0.0+0.0
6MIA0.0-0.0+0.0
5WSH18.6-13.0-5.6
4NYG16.7-27.5+10.8
3DEN12.2-24.9+12.7
2LV15.7-3.5-12.2
1KC14.7-8.1-6.6
  • Trending up: 7.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.42)
  • Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Devin Singletary (NYG vs LV)

Projections: ESPN 9.3 | LLM 6.5 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 61% BUST (historical). XGB: 9.6% boom, 60.4% bust (this week). AGREEMENT - Both strongly favor bust. LV allows 18.0 fppg to RBs (24th - easier) but Singletary's workload is inconsistent. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6.5 pts (within BUST range 2-8).

Context: O/U: 41.5 | ECR: 45

MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15WSH10.86.02.4-8.4
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NE6.3-19.2+12.9
12DET9.9-4.7-5.2
11GB9.6-17.7+8.1
10CHI9.7-10.3+0.6
9SF5.5-7.1+1.6
8PHI1.2-3.8+2.6
7DEN0.8-0.2-0.6
6PHI1.0-1.0+0.0
5NO6.0-3.4-2.6
4LAC7.4-2.8-4.6
3KC1.1-1.1+0.0
2DAL3.2-1.0-2.2
1WSH3.5-0.9-2.6
  • Trending down: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.21)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Isiah Pacheco (KC vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 8.9 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 70% BUST (historical). XGB: 11.9% boom, 59.9% bust (this week). MC/XGB favor bust BUT Pacheco is returning from injury with fresh legs. DEN allows 13.7 fppg to RBs (9th) is tough. With Rice likely OUT, could see more work. Mode: MODERATE (hopeful). Projection: 9.0 pts.

Context: O/U: 36.5 | ECR: 35

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC7.2-2.1-5.1
14HOU8.3-3.0-5.3
13DAL9.7-5.3-4.4
12IND0.0-0.0+0.0
11DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
8WSH11.4-5.8-5.6
7LV11.5-12.4+0.9
6DET8.9-6.1-2.8
5JAX7.7-8.6+0.9
4BAL9.2-12.8+3.6
3NYG11.1-5.8-5.3
2PHI10.9-3.9-7.0
1LAC12.8-4.8-8.0
  • 3-game streak of missing projections
  • Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
  • Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
  • Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 21.8 | LLM 18.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM, 44% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 11.4% boom, 22.6% bust (this week). AGREEMENT - Both favor moderate outcome. CAR defense rank 12 vs WR (16.7 fppg), game total 42.5. DK Metcalf suspension doesn't apply (he's on Steelers now). Safe WR1 floor. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 18.5 pts (within MODERATE range 13-22).

Context: O/U: 42.5 | ECR: 2

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15IND20.622.018.3-2.3
14ATL20.922.028.1+7.2
13MIN21.924.04.3-17.6
12TEN21.3-37.1+15.8
11LAR23.0-20.6-2.4
10ARI22.0-20.3-1.7
9WSH24.5-22.0-2.5
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7HOU20.0-26.3+6.3
6JAX17.9-30.2+12.3
5TB15.9-27.2+11.3
4ARI16.4-13.0-3.4
3NO15.5-20.6+5.1
2PIT14.4-18.3+3.9
1SF14.7-19.4+4.7
  • Averaging 20.4 pts vs 17.9 projected (+14%)
  • Trending down: 16.9 avg (last 3) vs 26.0 (prior 3)
  • Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs SEA)

Projections: ESPN 12.3 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 49% BUST, 37% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 16.9% boom, 21.5% bust (this week). SEA defense rank 2 vs WR (13.9 fppg) is TOUGH. Game total 42.5 but McMillan is WR2 in ARI. Upside capped. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 10.0 pts.

Context: O/U: 42.5 | ECR: 20

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15NO13.211.04.5-8.7
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13LAR13.213.011.3-1.9
12SF16.3-11.5-4.8
11ATL13.5-33.0+19.5
10NO12.2-11.0-1.2
9GB12.9-8.6-4.3
8BUF13.4-16.9+3.5
7NYJ12.5-6.3-6.2
6DAL14.6-17.9+3.3
5MIA14.2-13.3-0.9
4NE14.2-10.2-4.0
3ATL13.2-7.8-5.4
2ARI13.5-16.0+2.5
1JAX13.9-11.8-2.1
  • Trending down: 5.3 avg (last 3) vs 18.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.62)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs CIN)

Projections: ESPN 12.9 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM, 43% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 42.3% boom, 22.4% bust (this week). XGB sees boom potential but CIN ranks 7th vs WR (good defense). Game total 52.5 creates passing volume. Healthy after heel injury. Mode: MODERATE (high end). Projection: 15.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-16).

Context: O/U: 52.5 | ECR: 32

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15HOU0.00.00.0+0.0
14LAR0.00.00.0+0.0
13TB13.714.012.9-0.8
12JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
11SF0.0-0.0+0.0
10SEA13.3-14.3+1.0
9DAL13.3-22.6+9.3
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB12.5-7.8-4.7
6IND11.9-5.2-6.7
5TEN12.8-13.8+1.0
4SEA11.3-18.6+7.3
3SF12.7-7.4-5.3
2CAR14.0-4.7-9.3
1NO13.9-18.1+4.2
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.94)
  • Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (KC vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM N/A (OUT)

Reasoning: STATUS: OUT - Concussion protocol. Did not practice Tuesday. Thursday Night Football makes clearance impossible. Projection: 0.0 pts.

Context: O/U: 36.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC17.211.012.1-5.1
14HOU17.117.07.4-9.7
13DAL18.118.429.4+11.3
12IND17.6-24.1+6.5
11DEN16.4-9.8-6.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF18.4-18.6+0.2
8WSH17.2-25.5+8.2
7LV13.7-23.2+9.5
6DET0.0-0.0+0.0
5JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
4BAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
2PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
1LAC0.0-0.0+0.0
  • Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
  • Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
  • Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Jameson Williams (DET vs MIN)

Projections: ESPN 13.4 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 29% BOOM, 44% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 12.6% boom, 42.6% bust (this week). HIGH BUST risk per XGB. MIN defense rank 6 vs WR (14.8 fppg) is tough. Big play ability keeps ceiling alive but floor is scary. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 12.0 pts (within MODERATE range 10-20).

Context: O/U: 43.5 | ECR: 12

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAR13.918.026.4+12.5
14DAL13.817.317.3+3.5
13GB11.815.126.9+15.1
12NYG12.9-0.0-12.9
11PHI12.6-19.7+7.1
10WSH12.1-23.9+11.8
9MIN11.0-16.6+5.6
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7TB13.2-0.0-13.2
6KC10.7-18.6+7.9
5CIN11.8-2.0-9.8
4CLE10.7-5.7-5.0
3BAL12.9-6.3-6.6
2CHI13.0-18.8+5.8
1GB12.9-6.6-6.3
  • 3-game streak of beating projections
  • Trending up: 23.5 avg (last 3) vs 14.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.79)
  • Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Jayden Reed (GB vs BAL)

Projections: ESPN 9.8 | LLM 10.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 51% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 12.9% boom, 51.5% bust (this week). TIED TO JORDAN LOVE STATUS. If Love plays, BAL allows 19.8 fppg to WRs (22nd). If Willis plays, Reed capped. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.5 pts (if Love plays).

Context: O/U: 40.5 | ECR: 37

MC (Historical): BUST: 35% | MODERATE: 51% | BOOM: 15%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DEN10.0-10.5+0.5
14CHI7.7-9.3+1.6
13DET0.0-0.0+0.0
12MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
11NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
10PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
9CAR0.0-0.0+0.0
8PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
7ARI0.0-0.0+0.0
6CIN0.0-0.0+0.0
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3CLE0.0-0.0+0.0
2WSH11.3-0.0-11.3
1DET11.2-13.5+2.3
  • Averaging 2.2 pts vs 2.7 projected (-17%)
  • Trending up: 6.6 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 2.10)
  • Season high: 13.5 pts in Week 1

Juwan Johnson (NO vs TEN)

Projections: ESPN 10.2 | LLM 9.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 30% BOOM, 45% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 18.8% boom, 56.0% bust (this week). TEN allows 7.3 fppg to TEs (19th). Only viable TE option. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.5 pts (within MODERATE range 6-12).

Context: O/U: 39.5 | ECR: 6

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 30%

XGB (This Week): Boom 19% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15CAR9.710.07.0-2.7
14TB9.710.07.8-1.9
13MIA8.711.08.9+0.2
12ATL9.3-10.6+1.3
11BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
10CAR8.9-19.2+10.2
9LAR8.3-12.1+3.8
8TB9.6-10.3+0.7
7CHI7.5-12.9+5.4
6NE7.9-1.5-6.4
5NYG7.9-3.7-4.2
4BUF11.1-5.8-5.3
3SEA10.6-11.1+0.5
2SF9.1-15.9+6.8
1ARI7.3-15.6+8.3
  • Averaging 9.5 pts vs 8.4 projected (+13%)
  • Trending down: 7.9 avg (last 3) vs 9.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.57)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Tetairoa McMillan (WR) - CAR vs SEA

Projections: ESPN 12.3 | LLM 10.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22%

Notes: MC: 49% BUST, 37% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 16.9% boom, 21.5% bust (this week). SEA defense rank 2 vs WR (13.9 fppg) is TOUGH. Game total 42.5 but McMillan is WR2 in ARI. Upside capped. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 10.0 pts.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15NO13.211.04.5-8.7
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13LAR13.213.011.3-1.9
12SF16.3-11.5-4.8
11ATL13.5-33.0+19.5
10NO12.2-11.0-1.2
9GB12.9-8.6-4.3
8BUF13.4-16.9+3.5
7NYJ12.5-6.3-6.2
6DAL14.6-17.9+3.3
5MIA14.2-13.3-0.9
4NE14.2-10.2-4.0
3ATL13.2-7.8-5.4
2ARI13.5-16.0+2.5
1JAX13.9-11.8-2.1
  • Trending down: 5.3 avg (last 3) vs 18.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.62)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Rashee Rice (WR) - KC vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30%

Notes: STATUS: OUT - Concussion protocol. Did not practice Tuesday. Thursday Night Football makes clearance impossible. Projection: 0.0 pts.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC17.211.012.1-5.1
14HOU17.117.07.4-9.7
13DAL18.118.429.4+11.3
12IND17.6-24.1+6.5
11DEN16.4-9.8-6.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF18.4-18.6+0.2
8WSH17.2-25.5+8.2
7LV13.7-23.2+9.5
6DET0.0-0.0+0.0
5JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
4BAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
2PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
1LAC0.0-0.0+0.0
  • Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
  • Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
  • Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Tyjae Spears (RB) - TEN vs NO

Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38%

Notes: MC: 61% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 17.6% boom, 37.6% bust (this week). NO allows 17.5 fppg to RBs (20th). Backup role limits ceiling. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 8.0 pts (within MODERATE range 6-13).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15SF10.06.05.6-4.4
14CLE8.68.06.7-1.9
13JAX9.98.08.4-1.5
12SEA9.6-6.5-3.1
11HOU9.0-8.4-0.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9LAC9.5-9.2-0.3
8IND9.5-17.2+7.7
7NE7.8-7.0-0.8
6LV5.6-9.0+3.4
5ARI5.4-1.4-4.0
4HOU0.0-0.0+0.0
3IND0.0-0.0+0.0
2LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
1DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
  • 5-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Rams D/ST (D/ST) - LAR vs ATL

Projections: ESPN 5.4 | LLM 5.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 22%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 40% BUST, 39% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 10.6% boom, 59.7% bust (this week). ATL game total 49.5 is HIGH - not a D/ST friendly script. Mode: BUST. Projection: 5.0 pts (within BUST range 2-7).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DET4.24.0-1.0-5.2
14ARI6.99.06.0-0.9
13CAR7.510.01.0-6.5
12TB5.7-20.0+14.3
11SEA5.4-5.0-0.4
10SF6.4-5.0-1.4
9NO8.2-10.0+1.8
7JAX6.7-9.0+2.3
6BAL6.2-16.0+9.8
5SF7.0--2.0-9.0
4IND5.7-6.0+0.3
3PHI5.2-7.0+1.8
2TEN7.4-9.0+1.6
1HOU5.6-12.0+6.4
  • 3-game streak of missing projections
  • Averaging 7.4 pts vs 6.3 projected (+17%)
  • Trending down: 2.0 avg (last 3) vs 10.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
  • Season high: 20.0 pts in Week 12

Devin Singletary (RB) - NYG vs LV

Projections: ESPN 9.3 | LLM 6.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 61% BUST (historical). XGB: 9.6% boom, 60.4% bust (this week). AGREEMENT - Both strongly favor bust. LV allows 18.0 fppg to RBs (24th - easier) but Singletary's workload is inconsistent. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6.5 pts (within BUST range 2-8).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15WSH10.86.02.4-8.4
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NE6.3-19.2+12.9
12DET9.9-4.7-5.2
11GB9.6-17.7+8.1
10CHI9.7-10.3+0.6
9SF5.5-7.1+1.6
8PHI1.2-3.8+2.6
7DEN0.8-0.2-0.6
6PHI1.0-1.0+0.0
5NO6.0-3.4-2.6
4LAC7.4-2.8-4.6
3KC1.1-1.1+0.0
2DAL3.2-1.0-2.2
1WSH3.5-0.9-2.6
  • Trending down: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.21)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Isiah Pacheco (RB) - KC vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 8.9 | LLM 9.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 70% BUST (historical). XGB: 11.9% boom, 59.9% bust (this week). MC/XGB favor bust BUT Pacheco is returning from injury with fresh legs. DEN allows 13.7 fppg to RBs (9th) is tough. With Rice likely OUT, could see more work. Mode: MODERATE (hopeful). Projection: 9.0 pts.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC7.2-2.1-5.1
14HOU8.3-3.0-5.3
13DAL9.7-5.3-4.4
12IND0.0-0.0+0.0
11DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
8WSH11.4-5.8-5.6
7LV11.5-12.4+0.9
6DET8.9-6.1-2.8
5JAX7.7-8.6+0.9
4BAL9.2-12.8+3.6
3NYG11.1-5.8-5.3
2PHI10.9-3.9-7.0
1LAC12.8-4.8-8.0
  • 3-game streak of missing projections
  • Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
  • Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
  • Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Jayden Reed (WR) - GB vs BAL

Projections: ESPN 9.8 | LLM 10.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 35% | MODERATE: 51% | BOOM: 15%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52%

Notes: MC: 51% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 12.9% boom, 51.5% bust (this week). TIED TO JORDAN LOVE STATUS. If Love plays, BAL allows 19.8 fppg to WRs (22nd). If Willis plays, Reed capped. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.5 pts (if Love plays).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DEN10.0-10.5+0.5
14CHI7.7-9.3+1.6
13DET0.0-0.0+0.0
12MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
11NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
10PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
9CAR0.0-0.0+0.0
8PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
7ARI0.0-0.0+0.0
6CIN0.0-0.0+0.0
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3CLE0.0-0.0+0.0
2WSH11.3-0.0-11.3
1DET11.2-13.5+2.3
  • Averaging 2.2 pts vs 2.7 projected (-17%)
  • Trending up: 6.6 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 2.10)
  • Season high: 13.5 pts in Week 1

Sam Darnold (QB) - SEA vs CAR

Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 16.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 38% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 44%

Notes: MC: 37% MODERATE, 25% BOOM (historical). XGB: 13.3% boom, 43.8% bust (this week). CAR defense rank 7 vs QB (15.9 fppg). Game total 42.5 is moderate. Seattle should control game, limiting upside. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.5 pts (within MODERATE range 13-22).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15IND15.2-11.3-3.8
14ATL14.3-22.3+8.0
13MIN15.2-3.1-12.1
12TEN15.2-17.7+2.5
11LAR15.0-4.3-10.8
10ARI16.6-4.9-11.7
9WSH18.2-27.2+8.9
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7HOU14.9-8.6-6.3
6JAX15.3-20.0+4.7
5TB13.2-27.6+14.4
4ARI13.0-16.1+3.1
3NO14.1-16.7+2.7
2PIT12.8-15.8+3.0
1SF15.3-5.4-9.9
  • Trending up: 12.2 avg (last 3) vs 8.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.66)
  • Season high: 27.6 pts in Week 5

High Threat Players (>35% Boom)

James Cook III (RB): 57% boom probability

Dak Prescott (QB): 51% boom probability

Jaylen Waddle (WR): 49% boom probability

Tyler Warren (TE): 41% boom probability

Opponent Starter Analysis

PlayerPosTeamESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%Threat
James Cook III RB BUF 17.2 16.5 MODERATE 57% 31% 12% HIGH
Dak Prescott QB DAL 20.5 19.0 MODERATE 51% 34% 15% HIGH
Jaylen Waddle WR MIA 13.2 14.0 MODERATE 49% 36% 15% HIGH
Tyler Warren TE IND 12.1 11.0 MODERATE 41% 40% 19% HIGH
Broncos D/ST D/ST DEN 8.9 9.0 MODERATE 29% 45% 26% MEDIUM
Deebo Samuel WR WSH 11.9 13.5 MODERATE 27% 52% 22% MEDIUM
De'Von Achane RB MIA 22.3 20.0 MODERATE 13% 64% 23% LOW
Cairo Santos K CHI 8.4 7.0 BUST 13% 28% 59% LOW
DeVonta Smith WR PHI 12.4 13.0 MODERATE 9% 48% 43% LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

James Cook III: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 23%) | XGB (Boom 57% | Bust 12%)

Dak Prescott: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 27%) | XGB (Boom 51% | Bust 15%)

Jaylen Waddle: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 44%) | XGB (Boom 49% | Bust 15%)

Tyler Warren: MC (BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 41% | Bust 19%)

Broncos D/ST: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 29% | Bust 26%)

Deebo Samuel: MC (BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 31%) | XGB (Boom 27% | Bust 22%)

De'Von Achane: MC (BUST: 4% | MODERATE: 78% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 23%)

Cairo Santos: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 30% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 59%)

DeVonta Smith: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 10%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 43%)

Add/Drop Recommendations

Season Phase: Playoffs - Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster

🎯 Priority Pickups (Injury/Opportunity Based)

Maximize ceiling for must-win championship matchup. Rashee Rice OUT creates urgent need.

#1 Hunter Henry (TE, NE)
vs vs NYJ (Average (18th vs TE, 6.9 fppg))
ESPN: 10.7 Trend: NEUTRAL DROP: Rashee Rice (move to IR) or Rams D/ST

Consistent TE1 option. With Juwan Johnson as only TE, could use backup. Jets allow average TE production. Hunter Henry has 10+ pts in multiple recent games.

Week 17: Solid floor play if Juwan Johnson disappoints

#2 Quentin Johnston (WR, LAC)
vs vs HOU (Tough (4th vs WR, 14.4 fppg))
ESPN: 8.3 Trend: MODERATE DROP: Tetairoa McMillan or Devin Singletary

Stacks with Chargers offense. Even in tough matchup, Herbert's WR2 has boom potential. Could replace injured Rice's ceiling.

Week 17: Chargers playing for playoff seeding

#3 Rashid Shaheed (WR, SEA)
vs vs CAR (Decent (12th vs WR, 16.7 fppg))
ESPN: 9.4 Trend: NEUTRAL DROP: Devin Singletary

Deep threat in Seattle. With DK Metcalf traded to Steelers, more targets available. Stacks with JSN and Darnold in SEA @ CAR game.

Week 17: Boom-or-bust deep threat

#4 J.K. Dobbins (RB, LAC)
vs vs HOU (Tough (8th vs RB, 13.4 fppg))
ESPN: 0.0 Trend: INJURY RETURN DROP: N/A - monitor

If Dobbins returns from injury, he's a LAC RB option that could eat into Hampton's work. Monitor practice reports.

Week 17: Stash if available, could be emergency RB

⚠️ Players to Avoid

Keenan Allen (WR)
69% BUST probability per MC. Season avg 11.3 but very inconsistent. Don't chase name recognition.
Garrett Wilson (WR)
On IR, won't play Week 17.
Jayden Daniels (QB)
Listed as OUT. Don't roster injured players in championship week.

📋 Quick Summary

  • MOVE Rashee Rice to IR slot to free roster spot
  • If Jordan Love ruled OUT: Start Jacoby Brissett (already planned)
  • Consider ADD Hunter Henry if wanting TE insurance
  • HOLD all starting RBs despite tough matchups - volume matters in playoffs

MC-Based Analysis (Auto-Generated)

Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.

Protected Players (8): Sam Darnold (Elite ceiling (34 pts)), Isiah Pacheco (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Jayden Reed (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Rashee Rice (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Rams D/ST (Elite ceiling (25 pts))
ADD J.K. Dobbins RB,
Boom%47%
Bust%20%
EV12.2
BUST: 47% (4-11) MODERATE: 39% (8-20) BOOM: 14% (13-28)
ADD Jayden Daniels QB,
Boom%34%
Bust%30%
EV0.0
OUT: 100% (0-0)
ADD Evan Engram TE,
Boom%27%
Bust%24%
EV7.9
BUST: 34% (-0-6) MODERATE: 45% (4-13) BOOM: 20% (9-21)
ADD Jordan Love QB,
Boom%27%
Bust%21%
EV16.6
BUST: 26% (2-14) MODERATE: 53% (9-24) BOOM: 21% (18-36)
ADD Commanders D/ST D/ST,
Boom%24%
Bust%38%
EV7.7
BUST: 37% (-3-9) MODERATE: 39% (2-14) BOOM: 24% (7-22)

Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoffs mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

PlayerPosTeamESPNBoom%Bust%Own%
J.K. Dobbins RB 12.2 47% 20% 0.0%
Jayden Daniels QB 0.0 34% 30% 0.0%
Evan Engram TE 7.9 27% 24% 0.0%
Jordan Love QB 16.6 27% 21% 0.0%
Commanders D/ST D/ST 7.7 24% 38% 0.0%
Bears D/ST D/ST 8.4 20% 30% 0.0%
Matt Prater K 8.0 19% 54% 0.0%
Cooper Kupp WR 10.1 18% 48% 0.0%
Devin Neal RB 9.5 18% 45% 0.0%
Giants D/ST D/ST 6.7 18% 46% 0.0%
Harrison Mevis K 8.9 16% 48% 0.0%
Dolphins D/ST D/ST 8.3 15% 55% 0.0%
Quentin Johnston WR 11.8 15% 39% 0.0%
Garrett Wilson WR 14.7 15% 48% 0.0%
49ers D/ST D/ST 8.0 14% 51% 0.0%

QB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Jayden Daniels 0.0 OUT:100% 34% 30%
Jordan Love 16.6 BUST:26%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:21% 27% 21%
Sam Darnold 15.4 BUST:38%, MODERATE:37%, BOOM:25% 13% 44%
Kyler Murray 16.8 BUST:17%, MODERATE:57%, BOOM:26% 11% 54%

RB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
J.K. Dobbins 12.2 BUST:47%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:14% 47% 20%
Devin Neal 9.5 BUST:35%, MODERATE:46%, BOOM:19% 18% 45%
Trey Benson 8.6 BUST:34%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:24% 12% 57%
Quinshon Judkins 11.7 BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32% 9% 64%
Emanuel Wilson 7.7 BUST:55%, MODERATE:35%, BOOM:10% 9% 60%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 9.4 BUST:54%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:12% 8% 61%

WR Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Cooper Kupp 10.1 BUST:46%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:12% 18% 48%
Quentin Johnston 11.8 BUST:29%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:18% 15% 39%
Garrett Wilson 14.7 BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22% 15% 48%
Rashid Shaheed 10.3 BUST:28%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:30% 14% 53%
Keenan Allen 11.7 BUST:69%, MODERATE:22%, BOOM:9% 9% 56%

TE Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Evan Engram 7.9 BUST:34%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:20% 27% 24%
Hunter Henry 9.7 BUST:45%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:12% 8% 62%
Oronde Gadsden 13.8 BOOM:10%, MODERATE:40%, BUST:50% 0% 0%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Matt Prater 8.0 19% 54%
Harrison Mevis 8.9 16% 48%
Evan McPherson 9.6 9% 60%

D/ST Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Commanders D/ST 7.7 24% 38%
Bears D/ST 8.4 20% 30%
Giants D/ST 6.7 18% 46%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 17 | Generated: 2025-12-24 10:35

Matchup Summary

48.0%

Win Probability

-2.0
Expected Margin
121.0
My Team (LLM Proj)
123.0
Opponent (Proj)
30.5
Margin Std Dev
120.0
My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -37.6 pts | Median: +1.7 pts | Ceiling: +40.6 pts

Margin Distribution

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jacoby Brissett QB MED 21.0 4.4-28.0 ↑15+: 65% | ↓5-: 12% Jacoby Brissett
Bucky Irving RB HIGH 14.5 5.1-23.8 ↑15+: 40% | ↓5-: 10% Bucky Irving
Omarion Hampton RB HIGH 12.5 3.6-24.2 ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 18% Omarion Hampton
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR MED 18.5 6.3-30.0 ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 4% Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR HIGH 15.0 3.7-22.0 ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 18% Marvin Harrison Jr.
Jameson Williams WR HIGH 12.0 4.2-26.4 ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 14% Jameson Williams
Juwan Johnson TE HIGH 9.5 2.9-16.6 ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 23% Juwan Johnson
Chargers D/ST D/ST HIGH 9.0 1.0-18.1 ↑15+: 20% | ↓5-: 27% Chargers D/ST
Jason Myers K MED 9.0 5.4-19.1 ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 7% Jason Myers

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Sam Darnold QB HIGH 16.5 3.9-27.3 ↑15+: 50% | ↓5-: 16% Sam Darnold
Tyjae Spears RB HIGH 8.0 2.6-18.0 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 30% Tyjae Spears
Devin Singletary RB HIGH 6.5 0.6-17.9 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 54% Devin Singletary
Isiah Pacheco RB HIGH 9.0 2.3-15.5 ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 42% Isiah Pacheco
Tetairoa McMillan WR HIGH 10.0 4.9-25.0 ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 11% Tetairoa McMillan
Jayden Reed WR HIGH 10.5 4.5-22.7 ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 13% Jayden Reed
Rams D/ST D/ST HIGH 5.0 1.2-18.5 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 34% Rams D/ST

IR

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Rashee Rice WR MED 0.0 6.7-27.3 ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 3% Rashee Rice

Opponent

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Dak Prescott QB MED 19.0 7.6-29.9 ↑15+: 64% | ↓5-: 3% Dak Prescott
De'Von Achane RB MED 20.0 10.8-31.2 ↑15+: 65% | ↓5-: 3% De'Von Achane
James Cook III RB MED 16.5 6.2-27.4 ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 4% James Cook III
DeVonta Smith WR HIGH 13.0 4.5-24.6 ↑15+: 36% | ↓5-: 14% DeVonta Smith
Jaylen Waddle WR HIGH 14.0 3.2-22.5 ↑15+: 37% | ↓5-: 20% Jaylen Waddle
Deebo Samuel WR HIGH 13.5 3.6-22.5 ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 20% Deebo Samuel
Tyler Warren TE HIGH 11.0 3.3-18.3 ↑15+: 21% | ↓5-: 21% Tyler Warren
Broncos D/ST D/ST HIGH 9.0 0.8-17.9 ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 31% Broncos D/ST
Cairo Santos K HIGH 7.0 3.8-16.3 ↑15+: 14% | ↓5-: 23% Cairo Santos

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Trevor Lawrence QB HIGH 18.8 8.4-31.8 ↑15+: 62% | ↓5-: 2% Trevor Lawrence
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB HIGH 7.5 1.8-14.4 ↑15+: 9% | ↓5-: 35% Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Chimere Dike WR HIGH 10.0 1.7-21.1 ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 36% Chimere Dike
Dallas Goedert TE HIGH 11.9 3.8-23.3 ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 20% Dallas Goedert
Taysom Hill TE HIGH 5.4 0.7-13.7 ↑15+: 8% | ↓5-: 71% Taysom Hill
Buccaneers D/ST D/ST HIGH 10.1 1.4-21.1 ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 32% Buccaneers D/ST
Chase McLaughlin K HIGH 9.2 2.7-16.8 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 25% Chase McLaughlin

Scenario Details

Player Position BOOM MODERATE BUST EV
Bucky Irving RB 17% @ 24.3 59% @ 14.2 25% @ 5.9 13.9
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 27% @ 28.7 44% @ 18.4 29% @ 7.6 18.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR 27% @ 20.1 43% @ 12.0 31% @ 5.2 12.1
Omarion Hampton RB 25% @ 23.1 43% @ 12.1 32% @ 5.2 12.6
Jason Myers K 25% @ 18.3 44% @ 11.9 31% @ 6.5 11.8
Juwan Johnson TE 30% @ 14.9 45% @ 8.8 25% @ 3.8 9.4
Jameson Williams WR 29% @ 24.4 44% @ 15.6 28% @ 5.4 15.3
Jacoby Brissett QB 74% @ 21.4 2% @ 14.7 24% @ 6.0 17.5
Chargers D/ST D/ST 36% @ 15.0 42% @ 8.4 22% @ 2.8 9.5

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

PlayerPosESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%
Chargers D/STD/ST6.39.0MODERATE55.0%29.8%15.2%
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR12.915.0MODERATE42.3%35.3%22.4%
Rashee RiceWR13.70.0OUT24.9%45.3%29.8%
Jason MyersK8.49.0MODERATE23.2%55.1%21.6%
Juwan JohnsonTE10.29.5MODERATE18.8%25.1%56.0%
Tyjae SpearsRB9.98.0MODERATE17.6%44.8%37.6%
Tetairoa McMillanWR12.310.0MODERATE16.9%61.6%21.5%
Jacoby BrissettQB20.321.0BOOM13.5%50.0%36.4%
Sam DarnoldQB15.916.5MODERATE13.3%42.9%43.8%
Bucky IrvingRB14.714.5MODERATE12.9%38.9%48.2%
Jayden ReedWR9.810.5MODERATE12.9%35.6%51.5%
Jameson WilliamsWR13.412.0MODERATE12.6%44.9%42.6%
Isiah PachecoRB8.99.0MODERATE11.9%28.2%59.9%
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR21.818.5MODERATE11.4%66.0%22.6%
Rams D/STD/ST5.45.0BUST10.6%29.7%59.7%
Devin SingletaryRB9.36.5BUST9.6%30.1%60.4%
Omarion HamptonRB14.912.5MODERATE9.0%33.3%57.7%

League Standings

Week 17 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.

Rank Team Record PF (Total) PA (Total) +/- This Week Streak Playoff %
1 Kitty's Piggy Skins 10-5 1861.3 1676.5 +184.8 0.0 vs 0.0 L1 100.0%
2 4th and pinches 10-5 1771.1 1765.4 +5.7 0.0 vs 0.0 W2 100.0%
3 Valued Customers ← 9-6 1822.8 1558.6 +264.2 0.0 vs 0.0 W5 100.0%
4 Ryan's Rowdy Team 8-7 1759.9 1725.0 +35.0 0.0 vs 0.0 W1 100.0%
5 Wookie of the Year 8-7 1705.9 1731.9 -26.0 0.0 vs 0.0 L1 0.0%
6 Meat Pistols 8-7 1515.0 1664.9 -149.9 0.0 vs 0.0 L2 0.0%
7 Torta Pounders Football Club 7-8 1730.5 1674.7 +55.9 0.0 vs 0.0 L2 0.0%
8 Moms rules 7-8 1664.9 1778.5 -113.6 0.0 vs 0.0 W1 0.0%
9 Smooth Roosters 7-8 1664.4 1646.9 +17.5 0.0 vs 0.0 W3 0.0%
10 The Warsaw Pact 6-9 1653.5 1752.0 -98.5 0.0 vs 0.0 W2 0.0%
11 Chupi and the End Zone Bandits 6-9 1584.0 1689.6 -105.6 0.0 vs 0.0 L5 0.0%
12 Auto DraftKings 4-11 1697.9 1767.4 -69.5 0.0 vs 0.0 L4 0.0%

Week 17 Matchups

Away TeamScoreScoreHome Team
Kitty's Piggy Skins 0.0 @ 0.0 Valued Customers
4th and pinches 0.0 @ 0.0 Ryan's Rowdy Team
Wookie of the Year 0.0 @ 0.0 Moms rules
Meat Pistols 0.0 @ 0.0 The Warsaw Pact
Torta Pounders Football Club 0.0 @ 0.0 Auto DraftKings
Smooth Roosters 0.0 @ 0.0 Chupi and the End Zone Bandits

Season Points Trend

Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.

Weekly Points

Weekly Team Points

Cumulative Points

Cumulative Team Points

Week 17 Research Analysis - Championship Week

Updated: December 24, 2024 (Wednesday)

🚨 CRITICAL INJURY ALERTS

RASHEE RICE (WR, KC) - OUT - Status: Concussion protocol, did NOT practice Tuesday - Game: Thursday Night Football vs Broncos (Dec 26) - Impact: With short week, virtually impossible to clear protocol - Action: MUST bench - move to IR or bench slot - Source: SportingNews, DraftSharks

JORDAN LOVE (QB, GB) - QUESTIONABLE - Status: Concussion protocol from Week 16 vs Bears hit - Complication: Backup Malik Willis ALSO injured (shoulder) - Game: Saturday vs Ravens (Dec 28) - Impact: High-risk start even if cleared - consider benching for Brissett - Source: PackersWire, Yahoo Sports

SAM DARNOLD (QB, SEA) - Healthy, starting for Seattle JACOBY BRISSETT (QB, ARI) - Healthy, starting for Arizona

📊 VEGAS GAME ENVIRONMENTS

HIGH-SCORING GAMES (O/U 48+) - ARI @ CIN: 52.5 O/U → ELITE for Brissett, MHJ (Bengals D weak) - DAL @ WSH: 51.5 O/U → Opponent's Dak Prescott, Deebo Samuel benefit - CHI @ SF: 52.5 O/U → Opponent's Cairo Santos in shootout

MODERATE GAMES (O/U 40-48) - TB @ MIA: 45.5 O/U → Bucky Irving faces Dolphins - PHI @ BUF: 44.5 O/U → Opponent's Cook, DeVonta Smith - DET @ MIN: 43.5 O/U → Jameson Williams vs tough MIN D (rank 6) - SEA @ CAR: 42.5 O/U → JSN, Sam Darnold, Jason Myers

LOW-SCORING GAMES (O/U < 40) - DEN @ KC: 36.5 O/U → CONCERNING for KC offense (Rice likely OUT) - LAC @ HOU: 39.5 O/U → Omarion Hampton, Chargers D/ST

🏈 MATCHUP ANALYSIS BY TIER

ELITE MATCHUPS (Start with Confidence) 1. Jacoby Brissett vs CIN - Bengals allow 22.2 fppg to QBs (27th), O/U 52.5 - MC: 74% BOOM historical - Verdict: HIGH-ceiling play in shootout

  1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs CAR - Panthers allow 16.7 fppg to WRs (12th), O/U 42.5
  2. With Metcalf suspended from Steelers (different game), JSN is WR1
  3. MC: 27% BOOM, 44% MODERATE
  4. Verdict: Rock-solid WR1

  5. Marvin Harrison Jr. vs CIN - Bengals allow 15.3 fppg to WRs (7th... wait, that's GOOD defense)

  6. BUT: High O/U (52.5) + ARI likely trailing = garbage time
  7. MC: 27% BOOM
  8. Verdict: Boom-or-bust, but game script favors passing

GOOD MATCHUPS 4. Bucky Irving vs MIA - Dolphins allow 15.4 fppg to RBs (14th), O/U 45.5 - Healthy, RB1 role - MC: 59% MODERATE, 17% BOOM - Verdict: Safe floor, decent ceiling

  1. Juwan Johnson vs TEN - Titans allow 7.3 fppg to TEs (19th)
  2. Moderate matchup, but only TE option
  3. MC: 30% BOOM
  4. Verdict: Serviceable TE1

TOUGH MATCHUPS 6. Jameson Williams vs MIN - Vikings allow 14.8 fppg to WRs (6th) - XGB: 42.6% BUST probability - MIN defense is legit - MC: 29% BOOM, 28% BUST - Verdict: High-variance play

  1. Omarion Hampton vs HOU - Texans allow 13.4 fppg to RBs (8th)
  2. XGB: 57.7% BUST probability
  3. Tough matchup + low O/U (39.5)
  4. Verdict: Concerning, but still start as RB2

AVOID/BENCH 8. Rashee Rice vs DEN - OUT with concussion 9. Jordan Love vs BAL - Questionable + tough matchup (BAL D rank 14 vs QB) 10. Jayden Reed vs BAL - If Love doesn't play, Reed capped

🎯 GAME STACKING CORRELATION ANALYSIS

CRITICAL SWING GAME: TB @ MIA (50.2 combined pts) - We have: Bucky Irving (14.7) - Opponent has: De'Von Achane (22.3), Jaylen Waddle (13.2) - NEGATIVE CORRELATION: If MIA offense explodes, opponent benefits more - IF TB gets blowout lead → Bucky runs clock, good for us - IF MIA gets lead → Achane/Waddle rack up points, bad for us - VERDICT: Need competitive game, prefer TB lead

KC vs DEN STACK (31.5 combined pts) - We have: Rashee Rice (13.7 - likely OUT), Isiah Pacheco (8.9) - Opponent has: Broncos D/ST (8.9) - With Rice OUT, our exposure drops to just Pacheco (8.9) - Broncos D/ST could feast if KC offense struggles without Rice - VERDICT: Opponent's Broncos D/ST is a CONCERN

SEA @ CAR (58.4 pts - ALL OURS) - We have: JSN (21.8), Sam Darnold (15.9), Jason Myers (8.4), T-Mac (12.3) - No opponent players in this game - POSITIVE for us: All upside, no hedge needed - HIGH game total exposure

📋 LINEUP RECOMMENDATIONS

MUST START: - Jacoby Brissett (QB) - Elite matchup, high O/U - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR) - Locked in as WR1 - Bucky Irving (RB) - Healthy, workhorse role - Omarion Hampton (RB) - Despite tough matchup, volume play

FLEX CONSIDERATIONS: - Marvin Harrison Jr. - High ceiling in shootout - Jameson Williams - Boom/bust but talent is there - Juwan Johnson - Only TE, start by default

BENCH: - Rashee Rice - OUT (concussion) - Jordan Love - Concussion protocol, even if plays is risky - Jayden Reed - Tied to Love's status - Tyjae Spears - Backup role - Devin Singletary - Low upside

D/ST CHOICE: - Chargers D/ST vs HOU (6.3) - XGB: 55% BOOM prob - Rams D/ST vs ATL (5.4) - Worse matchup

🏆 WIN PROBABILITY ANALYSIS

Matchup: Valued Customers vs Kitty's Piggy Skins

ESPN Projections: - Us: 122.8 pts - Them: 127.0 pts

KEY SWING FACTORS: 1. If Rashee Rice is OUT (likely) → We lose ~13 pts, need replacement 2. If Jordan Love is OUT → We likely start Brissett (upgrade in this matchup) 3. TB @ MIA game script → Determines ~50 pts of combined exposure

OPPONENT THREATS: - De'Von Achane (22.3) - Explosive RB, TD-dependent boom - Dak Prescott (20.5) - Good matchup vs WSH - James Cook III (17.2) - Consistent producer

VERDICT: Slight underdog but winnable if: 1. We pivot off injured players correctly 2. JSN/Brissett hit their ceilings 3. TB game stays competitive

Reddit Insights

Hot Topics

Sources

Waiver Wire Notes

No waiver recommendations this week.

Injury Concerns

No major injury concerns.

Crystal Society Debates

Multi-agent analysis for strategic decisions (Week 17)

Week 17 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

11.0
Our Team MAE
17 players
13.7
Opponent MAE
9 players
0.0
Free Agent MAE
1 players
27
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 11.5
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 20.3 21.0 0.0 -21.0
Opponent RB De'Von Achane 22.3 20.0 0.0 -20.0
Opponent QB Dak Prescott 20.5 19.0 0.0 -19.0
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 21.8 18.5 0.0 -18.5
Our Team QB Sam Darnold 15.9 16.5 0.0 -16.5
Opponent RB James Cook III 17.2 16.5 0.0 -16.5
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 12.9 15.0 0.0 -15.0
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 14.7 14.5 0.0 -14.5
Opponent WR Jaylen Waddle 13.2 14.0 0.0 -14.0
Opponent WR Deebo Samuel 11.9 13.5 0.0 -13.5
Opponent WR DeVonta Smith 12.4 13.0 0.0 -13.0
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 14.9 12.5 0.0 -12.5
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 13.4 12.0 0.0 -12.0
Opponent TE Tyler Warren 12.1 11.0 0.0 -11.0
Our Team WR Jayden Reed 9.8 10.5 0.0 -10.5
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 12.3 10.0 0.0 -10.0
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 10.2 9.5 0.0 -9.5
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.4 9.0 0.0 -9.0
Our Team D/ST Chargers D/ST 6.3 9.0 0.0 -9.0
Our Team RB Isiah Pacheco 8.9 9.0 0.0 -9.0
Opponent D/ST Broncos D/ST 8.9 9.0 0.0 -9.0
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 9.9 8.0 0.0 -8.0
Opponent K Cairo Santos 8.4 7.0 0.0 -7.0
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 9.3 6.5 0.0 -6.5
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 5.4 5.0 0.0 -5.0
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 13.7 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Free Agent QB Sam Darnold 0.0 - 0.0 +0.0

Week 16 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_007 (2025-12-20)

6.2
Our Team MAE
17 players
4.3
Opponent MAE
9 players
8.4
Free Agent MAE
6 players
32
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 6.1
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Free Agent K Ka'imi Fairbairn 0.0 - 16.0 +16.0
Free Agent RB Isiah Pacheco 0.0 - 13.5 +13.5
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 8.7 10.0 21.5 +11.5
Our Team QB Jordan Love 17.4 15.0 3.8 -11.2
Free Agent K Eddy Pineiro 0.0 - 11.0 +11.0
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 18.8 21.0 10.6 -10.4
Opponent TE Trey McBride 16.8 - 6.7 -10.1
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 15.9 22.0 12.0 -10.0
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 14.2 12.0 2.4 -9.6
Our Team D/ST Chargers D/ST 4.2 12.0 4.0 -8.0
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 9.1 9.0 16.9 +7.9
Our Team RB Isiah Pacheco 9.1 6.0 13.5 +7.5
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 15.2 14.0 7.1 -6.9
Opponent RB Rico Dowdle 15.2 - 8.3 -6.9
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 13.1 13.0 19.3 +6.3
Our Team WR Jayden Reed 11.2 13.0 7.1 -5.9
Opponent WR DK Metcalf 13.5 - 8.2 -5.3
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 17.8 5.0 0.0 -5.0
Free Agent D/ST Patriots D/ST 0.0 - 5.0 +5.0
Opponent RB Michael Carter 11.0 - 6.5 -4.5
Free Agent D/ST Chargers D/ST 0.0 - 4.0 +4.0
Opponent QB Baker Mayfield 16.6 - 12.7 -3.9
Opponent D/ST Jaguars D/ST 5.6 - 2.0 -3.6
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 13.2 13.0 16.5 +3.5
Opponent K Harrison Butker 8.0 - 11.0 +3.0
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 7.5 4.0 5.6 +1.6
Opponent RB Jahmyr Gibbs 23.8 - 22.8 -1.0
Free Agent D/ST Chiefs D/ST 0.0 - 1.0 +1.0
Opponent WR Michael Wilson 13.4 - 13.2 -0.2
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 19.9 23.6 23.6 +0.0
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.1 2.0 2.0 +0.0
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 5.7 4.0 4.0 +0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

projection_accuracy_overall.png projection_accuracy_by_position.png projection_error_distribution.png projection_accuracy_trend.png league_team_mae_ranking.png league_bias_heatmap.png league_positional_scatter.png

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

xgb_boom_calibration.png xgb_bust_calibration.png xgb_position_calibration.png xgb_weekly_brier_trend.png xgb_feature_importance.png

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

llm_projection_accuracy_overall.png llm_projection_accuracy_by_position.png llm_projection_error_distribution.png llm_projection_accuracy_trend.png

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 17 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.

Bucky Irving (RB)
Bucky Irving distribution
LLM 14.5 pts
ESPN 14.7 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
58%
BOOM
17%
10th percentile 5.0 pts
Median (50th) 13.2 pts
90th percentile 23.7 pts
MC (Historical)
17% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba distribution
LLM 18.5 pts
ESPN 21.8 pts
BUST
29%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 6.3 pts
Median (50th) 17.7 pts
90th percentile 30.1 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Tetairoa McMillan (WR)
Tetairoa McMillan distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN 12.3 pts
BUST
49%
MODERATE
37%
BOOM
14%
10th percentile 4.8 pts
Median (50th) 10.0 pts
90th percentile 25.3 pts
MC (Historical)
14% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
17% BOOM
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)
Marvin Harrison Jr. distribution
LLM 15.0 pts
ESPN 12.9 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 3.9 pts
Median (50th) 11.0 pts
90th percentile 21.5 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
42% BOOM
Rashee Rice (WR)
Rashee Rice distribution
LLM 0.0 pts
ESPN 13.7 pts
BUST
37%
MODERATE
24%
BOOM
39%
10th percentile 6.5 pts
Median (50th) 15.8 pts
90th percentile 27.5 pts
MC (Historical)
39% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
25% BOOM
Tyjae Spears (RB)
Tyjae Spears distribution
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN 9.9 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
61%
BOOM
14%
10th percentile 2.6 pts
Median (50th) 7.5 pts
90th percentile 18.0 pts
MC (Historical)
14% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
18% BOOM
Omarion Hampton (RB)
Omarion Hampton distribution
LLM 12.5 pts
ESPN 14.9 pts
BUST
32%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
25%
10th percentile 3.7 pts
Median (50th) 11.2 pts
90th percentile 24.3 pts
MC (Historical)
25% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Jason Myers (K)
Jason Myers distribution
LLM 9.0 pts
ESPN 8.4 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
25%
10th percentile 5.4 pts
Median (50th) 11.3 pts
90th percentile 19.0 pts
MC (Historical)
25% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
23% BOOM
Juwan Johnson (TE)
Juwan Johnson distribution
LLM 9.5 pts
ESPN 10.2 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
45%
BOOM
30%
10th percentile 2.9 pts
Median (50th) 8.7 pts
90th percentile 16.6 pts
MC (Historical)
30% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
19% BOOM
Jameson Williams (WR)
Jameson Williams distribution
LLM 12.0 pts
ESPN 13.4 pts
BUST
28%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
29%
10th percentile 4.2 pts
Median (50th) 15.2 pts
90th percentile 26.3 pts
MC (Historical)
29% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Rams D/ST (D/ST)
Rams D/ST distribution
LLM 5.0 pts
ESPN 5.4 pts
BUST
40%
MODERATE
38%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 1.0 pts
Median (50th) 7.7 pts
90th percentile 18.3 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Devin Singletary (RB)
Devin Singletary distribution
LLM 6.5 pts
ESPN 9.3 pts
BUST
61%
MODERATE
21%
BOOM
18%
10th percentile 0.6 pts
Median (50th) 4.4 pts
90th percentile 18.1 pts
MC (Historical)
18% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
10% BOOM
Jacoby Brissett (QB)
Jacoby Brissett distribution
LLM 21.0 pts
ESPN 20.3 pts
BUST
24%
MODERATE
2%
BOOM
74%
10th percentile 4.4 pts
Median (50th) 18.3 pts
90th percentile 28.3 pts
MC (Historical)
74% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Chargers D/ST (D/ST)
Chargers D/ST distribution
LLM 9.0 pts
ESPN 6.3 pts
BUST
22%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
36%
10th percentile 0.8 pts
Median (50th) 8.7 pts
90th percentile 17.9 pts
MC (Historical)
36% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
55% BOOM
Isiah Pacheco (RB)
Isiah Pacheco distribution
LLM 9.0 pts
ESPN 8.9 pts
BUST
70%
MODERATE
27%
BOOM
3%
10th percentile 2.3 pts
Median (50th) 5.6 pts
90th percentile 15.2 pts
MC (Historical)
3% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
12% BOOM
Jayden Reed (WR)
Jayden Reed distribution
LLM 10.5 pts
ESPN 9.8 pts
BUST
35%
MODERATE
51%
BOOM
15%
10th percentile 4.4 pts
Median (50th) 9.9 pts
90th percentile 22.3 pts
MC (Historical)
15% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Sam Darnold (QB)
Sam Darnold distribution
LLM 16.5 pts
ESPN 15.9 pts
BUST
38%
MODERATE
37%
BOOM
25%
10th percentile 4.0 pts
Median (50th) 15.3 pts
90th percentile 27.6 pts
MC (Historical)
25% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
De'Von Achane (RB)
De'Von Achane distribution
LLM 20.0 pts
ESPN 22.3 pts
BUST
4%
MODERATE
78%
BOOM
18%
10th percentile 10.8 pts
Median (50th) 16.8 pts
90th percentile 31.3 pts
MC (Historical)
18% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
James Cook III (RB)
James Cook III distribution
LLM 16.5 pts
ESPN 17.2 pts
BUST
32%
MODERATE
45%
BOOM
23%
10th percentile 6.2 pts
Median (50th) 15.3 pts
90th percentile 27.5 pts
MC (Historical)
23% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
57% BOOM
DeVonta Smith (WR)
DeVonta Smith distribution
LLM 13.0 pts
ESPN 12.4 pts
BUST
48%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
10%
10th percentile 4.5 pts
Median (50th) 11.5 pts
90th percentile 24.8 pts
MC (Historical)
10% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Jaylen Waddle (WR)
Jaylen Waddle distribution
LLM 14.0 pts
ESPN 13.2 pts
BUST
15%
MODERATE
41%
BOOM
44%
10th percentile 3.1 pts
Median (50th) 11.3 pts
90th percentile 22.3 pts
MC (Historical)
44% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
49% BOOM
Deebo Samuel (WR)
Deebo Samuel distribution
LLM 13.5 pts
ESPN 11.9 pts
BUST
40%
MODERATE
29%
BOOM
31%
10th percentile 3.6 pts
Median (50th) 10.0 pts
90th percentile 23.1 pts
MC (Historical)
31% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
27% BOOM
Tyler Warren (TE)
Tyler Warren distribution
LLM 11.0 pts
ESPN 12.1 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
32%
10th percentile 3.3 pts
Median (50th) 9.2 pts
90th percentile 18.3 pts
MC (Historical)
32% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
41% BOOM
Dak Prescott (QB)
Dak Prescott distribution
LLM 19.0 pts
ESPN 20.5 pts
BUST
32%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 7.5 pts
Median (50th) 18.4 pts
90th percentile 29.8 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
51% BOOM
Broncos D/ST (D/ST)
Broncos D/ST distribution
LLM 9.0 pts
ESPN 8.9 pts
BUST
15%
MODERATE
57%
BOOM
28%
10th percentile 0.9 pts
Median (50th) 8.2 pts
90th percentile 18.2 pts
MC (Historical)
28% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
29% BOOM
Cairo Santos (K)
Cairo Santos distribution
LLM 7.0 pts
ESPN 8.4 pts
BUST
48%
MODERATE
30%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 3.9 pts
Median (50th) 7.9 pts
90th percentile 16.1 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM