48%

Win Probability

-2.0

Projected Margin

CI: [-22.0 to +18.0]

Boom Potential

Marvin Harrison Jr., Chargers D/ST

Bust Risk

Omarion Hampton (58%), Juwan Johnson (56%), Jameson Williams (43%), Bucky Irving (48%)

Start/Sit Decisions

QB: Start Jacoby Brissett over Sam Darnold Higher projection (21.0 vs 16.5)

RB1: Start Bucky Irving over Omarion Hampton Higher projection (14.5 vs 12.5)

RB2: Start Omarion Hampton over Isiah Pacheco Higher projection (12.5 vs 9.0)

WR1: Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba over Marvin Harrison Jr. Higher projection (18.5 vs 15.0)

WR2: Start Marvin Harrison Jr. over Jameson Williams Higher projection (15.0 vs 12.0)

D/ST: Start Chargers D/ST over Rams D/ST Higher projection (9.0 vs 5.0)

FLEX: Start Jameson Williams over Jayden Reed Higher projection (12.0 vs 10.5)

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

Slot	Player	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Confidence
QB	Jacoby Brissett	CIN	20.3	21.0	BOOM	MEDIUM
RB	Bucky Irving	MIA	14.7	14.5	MODERATE	MEDIUM
RB	Omarion Hampton	HOU	14.9	12.5	MODERATE	MEDIUM
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	CAR	21.8	18.5	MODERATE	MEDIUM
WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	CIN	12.9	15.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
TE	Juwan Johnson	TEN	10.2	9.5	MODERATE	MEDIUM
WR	Jameson Williams	MIN	13.4	12.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
K	Jason Myers	CAR	8.4	9.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
D/ST	Chargers D/ST	HOU	6.3	9.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM

Waiver Wire

Maximize ceiling for must-win championship matchup. Rashee Rice OUT creates urgent need.

#1 Hunter Henry (TE, NE)

DROP: Rashee Rice (move to IR) or Rams D/ST

Consistent TE1 option. With Juwan Johnson as only TE, could use backup. Jets allow average TE production. Hunter Henry has 10+ pts in multiple recent ...

#2 Quentin Johnston (WR, LAC)

DROP: Tetairoa McMillan or Devin Singletary

Stacks with Chargers offense. Even in tough matchup, Herbert's WR2 has boom potential. Could replace injured Rice's ceiling.

#3 Rashid Shaheed (WR, SEA)

DROP: Devin Singletary

Deep threat in Seattle. With DK Metcalf traded to Steelers, more targets available. Stacks with JSN and Darnold in SEA @ CAR game.

⚠️ Avoid: Keenan Allen, Garrett Wilson, Jayden Daniels

See Waivers tab for full analysis and injury opportunities.

Executive Summary

Championship Week 17 is a closer matchup than ESPN suggests. Kitty's Piggy Skins shows 114.6 projected, but Quinshon Judkins (0.0 in FLEX) will be replaced - likely by Hunter Henry TE (10.7) or similar FA, pushing them to ~125 points. Our 131 projection gives us a 6-point edge (58% win probability). Key advantages: Brissett vs CIN (27th vs QB) in 53.5-total shootout, JSN vs CAR as WR2 overall. Key concerns: Jordan Love's questionable status and Rashee Rice's IR. Every point matters in this championship.

Key Insights

SMASH SPOT: Brissett vs CIN (27th vs QB) in 53.5-total shootout - QB8 in ECR
SMASH SPOT: JSN vs CAR as WR2 overall with 26.9 FP projection
CONCERN: Jordan Love QUESTIONABLE vs tough BAL (14th vs QB) - have Brissett backup
CONCERN: Rashee Rice OUT (IR) - need WR depth from waivers
XGB ALERT: Chargers D/ST has 55% boom probability - highest on roster
GAME STACK: TB @ MIA (45.5 total) - Irving competes with opponent's Achane/Waddle
AVOID: Low-total games (KC/DEN 36.5, TEN/NO 38.5) limit upside

Matchup Status (Week 17)

0.0 - 0.0 vs Kitty's Piggy Skins

Games Pending (17)

Player	Pos	Slot	ESPN	LLM
Jacoby Brissett	QB	QB	20.3	21.0
Bucky Irving	RB	RB	14.7	14.5
Omarion Hampton	RB	RB	14.9	12.5
Jameson Williams	WR	WR	13.4	12.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	WR	21.8	18.5
Juwan Johnson	TE	TE	10.2	9.5
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	RB/WR/TE	12.9	15.0
Jason Myers	K	K	8.4	9.0
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	D/ST	6.3	9.0
Devin Singletary (bench)	RB	BE	9.3	6.5
Isiah Pacheco (bench)	RB	BE	8.9	9.0
Jayden Reed (bench)	WR	BE	9.8	10.5
Rams D/ST (bench)	D/ST	BE	5.4	5.0
Sam Darnold (bench)	QB	BE	15.9	16.5
Tetairoa McMillan (bench)	WR	BE	12.3	10.0
Tyjae Spears (bench)	RB	BE	9.9	8.0
Rashee Rice (bench)	WR	IR	13.7	---

0.0 Actual

121.0 LLM Total

122.9 ESPN Total

Opponent: Kitty's Piggy Skins

Opponent Games Pending (16)

Player	Pos	Slot	ESPN	LLM
Dak Prescott	QB	QB	20.5	19.0
De'Von Achane	RB	RB	22.3	20.0
James Cook III	RB	RB	17.2	16.5
Deebo Samuel	WR	WR	11.9	13.5
Jaylen Waddle	WR	WR	13.2	14.0
Tyler Warren	TE	TE	12.1	11.0
DeVonta Smith	WR	RB/WR/TE	12.4	13.0
Cairo Santos	K	K	8.4	7.0
Broncos D/ST	D/ST	D/ST	8.9	9.0
Buccaneers D/ST (bench)	D/ST	BE	5.7	---
Chase McLaughlin (bench)	K	BE	8.0	---
Chimere Dike (bench)	WR	BE	10.7	---
Chris Rodriguez Jr. (bench)	RB	BE	10.7	---
Dallas Goedert (bench)	TE	BE	10.8	---
Taysom Hill (bench)	TE	BE	10.4	---
Trevor Lawrence (bench)	QB	BE	19.4	---

0.0 Opp Actual

123.0 Opp LLM Total

127.0 Opp ESPN Total

Projected Margin: -2.0 pts

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs CIN)

Projections: ESPN 20.3 | LLM 21.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 74% BOOM (historical). XGB: 13.5% boom, 36.4% bust (this week). DISAGREEMENT - MC strongly favors boom based on Brissett's pattern of big games. Context supports MC: CIN allows 22.2 fppg to QBs (27th), game total 52.5 is elite. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 21.0 pts (within BOOM range 15-27).

Context: O/U: 52.5 | ECR: 8

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 74%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	HOU	13.9	16.0	20.6	+6.7
14	LAR	15.3	19.0	19.0	+3.7
13	TB	17.2	20.5	19.6	+2.4
12	JAX	16.7	-	18.7	+1.9
11	SF	17.9	-	21.9	+3.9
10	SEA	15.3	-	19.4	+4.2
9	DAL	19.4	-	24.8	+5.4
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	16.6	-	19.8	+3.2
6	IND	13.4	-	20.7	+7.3
5	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	SEA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	CAR	0.0	-	0.2	+0.2
1	NO	0.1	-	0.0	-0.1

6-game streak of beating projections
Averaging 12.3 pts vs 9.7 projected (+27%)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.85)
Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Sam Darnold (SEA vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 16.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 37% MODERATE, 25% BOOM (historical). XGB: 13.3% boom, 43.8% bust (this week). CAR defense rank 7 vs QB (15.9 fppg). Game total 42.5 is moderate. Seattle should control game, limiting upside. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.5 pts (within MODERATE range 13-22).

Context: O/U: 42.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 38% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 44% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	IND	15.2	-	11.3	-3.8
14	ATL	14.3	-	22.3	+8.0
13	MIN	15.2	-	3.1	-12.1
12	TEN	15.2	-	17.7	+2.5
11	LAR	15.0	-	4.3	-10.8
10	ARI	16.6	-	4.9	-11.7
9	WSH	18.2	-	27.2	+8.9
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	HOU	14.9	-	8.6	-6.3
6	JAX	15.3	-	20.0	+4.7
5	TB	13.2	-	27.6	+14.4
4	ARI	13.0	-	16.1	+3.1
3	NO	14.1	-	16.7	+2.7
2	PIT	12.8	-	15.8	+3.0
1	SF	15.3	-	5.4	-9.9

Trending up: 12.2 avg (last 3) vs 8.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.66)
Season high: 27.6 pts in Week 5

Bucky Irving (TB vs MIA)

Projections: ESPN 14.7 | LLM 14.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 59% MODERATE, 17% BOOM (historical). XGB: 12.9% boom, 48.2% bust (this week). DISAGREEMENT - XGB high bust but MC favors moderate. MIA allows 15.4 fppg to RBs (14th), game total 45.5. Workhorse role with no injury concerns. Trust MC. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14.5 pts (within MODERATE range 10-18).

Context: O/U: 45.5 | ECR: 15

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 58% | BOOM: 17%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	ATL	15.2	14.0	8.1	-7.1
14	NO	16.4	16.0	16.1	-0.3
13	ARI	11.8	12.0	16.1	+4.3
12	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	BUF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	NE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	NO	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	SEA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	PHI	17.5	-	25.5	+8.0
3	NYJ	17.9	-	13.9	-4.0
2	HOU	15.9	-	18.1	+2.2
1	ATL	17.3	-	14.5	-2.8

Trending up: 13.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs NO)

Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 61% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 17.6% boom, 37.6% bust (this week). NO allows 17.5 fppg to RBs (20th). Backup role limits ceiling. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 8.0 pts (within MODERATE range 6-13).

Context: O/U: 39.5 | ECR: 38

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	SF	10.0	6.0	5.6	-4.4
14	CLE	8.6	8.0	6.7	-1.9
13	JAX	9.9	8.0	8.4	-1.5
12	SEA	9.6	-	6.5	-3.1
11	HOU	9.0	-	8.4	-0.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	LAC	9.5	-	9.2	-0.3
8	IND	9.5	-	17.2	+7.7
7	NE	7.8	-	7.0	-0.8
6	LV	5.6	-	9.0	+3.4
5	ARI	5.4	-	1.4	-4.0
4	HOU	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

5-game streak of missing projections
Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 14.9 | LLM 12.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 43% MODERATE, 25% BOOM (historical). XGB: 9.0% boom, 57.7% bust (this week). DISAGREEMENT - XGB very high bust but HOU defense (rank 8 vs RB, 13.4 fppg) is tough. Volume should provide floor. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 12.5 pts (within MODERATE range 8-17).

Context: O/U: 39.5 | ECR: 17

MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	KC	11.7	10.0	7.5	-4.2
14	PHI	12.1	8.0	14.7	+2.6
13	LV	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
12	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	PIT	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	MIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	MIA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	WSH	18.6	-	13.0	-5.6
4	NYG	16.7	-	27.5	+10.8
3	DEN	12.2	-	24.9	+12.7
2	LV	15.7	-	3.5	-12.2
1	KC	14.7	-	8.1	-6.6

Trending up: 7.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.42)
Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Devin Singletary (NYG vs LV)

Projections: ESPN 9.3 | LLM 6.5 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 61% BUST (historical). XGB: 9.6% boom, 60.4% bust (this week). AGREEMENT - Both strongly favor bust. LV allows 18.0 fppg to RBs (24th - easier) but Singletary's workload is inconsistent. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6.5 pts (within BUST range 2-8).

Context: O/U: 41.5 | ECR: 45

MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	WSH	10.8	6.0	2.4	-8.4
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NE	6.3	-	19.2	+12.9
12	DET	9.9	-	4.7	-5.2
11	GB	9.6	-	17.7	+8.1
10	CHI	9.7	-	10.3	+0.6
9	SF	5.5	-	7.1	+1.6
8	PHI	1.2	-	3.8	+2.6
7	DEN	0.8	-	0.2	-0.6
6	PHI	1.0	-	1.0	+0.0
5	NO	6.0	-	3.4	-2.6
4	LAC	7.4	-	2.8	-4.6
3	KC	1.1	-	1.1	+0.0
2	DAL	3.2	-	1.0	-2.2
1	WSH	3.5	-	0.9	-2.6

Trending down: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.21)
Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Isiah Pacheco (KC vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 8.9 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 70% BUST (historical). XGB: 11.9% boom, 59.9% bust (this week). MC/XGB favor bust BUT Pacheco is returning from injury with fresh legs. DEN allows 13.7 fppg to RBs (9th) is tough. With Rice likely OUT, could see more work. Mode: MODERATE (hopeful). Projection: 9.0 pts.

Context: O/U: 36.5 | ECR: 35

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	7.2	-	2.1	-5.1
14	HOU	8.3	-	3.0	-5.3
13	DAL	9.7	-	5.3	-4.4
12	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	WSH	11.4	-	5.8	-5.6
7	LV	11.5	-	12.4	+0.9
6	DET	8.9	-	6.1	-2.8
5	JAX	7.7	-	8.6	+0.9
4	BAL	9.2	-	12.8	+3.6
3	NYG	11.1	-	5.8	-5.3
2	PHI	10.9	-	3.9	-7.0
1	LAC	12.8	-	4.8	-8.0

3-game streak of missing projections
Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 21.8 | LLM 18.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM, 44% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 11.4% boom, 22.6% bust (this week). AGREEMENT - Both favor moderate outcome. CAR defense rank 12 vs WR (16.7 fppg), game total 42.5. DK Metcalf suspension doesn't apply (he's on Steelers now). Safe WR1 floor. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 18.5 pts (within MODERATE range 13-22).

Context: O/U: 42.5 | ECR: 2

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	IND	20.6	22.0	18.3	-2.3
14	ATL	20.9	22.0	28.1	+7.2
13	MIN	21.9	24.0	4.3	-17.6
12	TEN	21.3	-	37.1	+15.8
11	LAR	23.0	-	20.6	-2.4
10	ARI	22.0	-	20.3	-1.7
9	WSH	24.5	-	22.0	-2.5
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	HOU	20.0	-	26.3	+6.3
6	JAX	17.9	-	30.2	+12.3
5	TB	15.9	-	27.2	+11.3
4	ARI	16.4	-	13.0	-3.4
3	NO	15.5	-	20.6	+5.1
2	PIT	14.4	-	18.3	+3.9
1	SF	14.7	-	19.4	+4.7

Averaging 20.4 pts vs 17.9 projected (+14%)
Trending down: 16.9 avg (last 3) vs 26.0 (prior 3)
Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs SEA)

Projections: ESPN 12.3 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 49% BUST, 37% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 16.9% boom, 21.5% bust (this week). SEA defense rank 2 vs WR (13.9 fppg) is TOUGH. Game total 42.5 but McMillan is WR2 in ARI. Upside capped. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 10.0 pts.

Context: O/U: 42.5 | ECR: 20

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	NO	13.2	11.0	4.5	-8.7
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	LAR	13.2	13.0	11.3	-1.9
12	SF	16.3	-	11.5	-4.8
11	ATL	13.5	-	33.0	+19.5
10	NO	12.2	-	11.0	-1.2
9	GB	12.9	-	8.6	-4.3
8	BUF	13.4	-	16.9	+3.5
7	NYJ	12.5	-	6.3	-6.2
6	DAL	14.6	-	17.9	+3.3
5	MIA	14.2	-	13.3	-0.9
4	NE	14.2	-	10.2	-4.0
3	ATL	13.2	-	7.8	-5.4
2	ARI	13.5	-	16.0	+2.5
1	JAX	13.9	-	11.8	-2.1

Trending down: 5.3 avg (last 3) vs 18.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.62)
Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs CIN)

Projections: ESPN 12.9 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM, 43% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 42.3% boom, 22.4% bust (this week). XGB sees boom potential but CIN ranks 7th vs WR (good defense). Game total 52.5 creates passing volume. Healthy after heel injury. Mode: MODERATE (high end). Projection: 15.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-16).

Context: O/U: 52.5 | ECR: 32

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	HOU	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
14	LAR	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	TB	13.7	14.0	12.9	-0.8
12	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	SEA	13.3	-	14.3	+1.0
9	DAL	13.3	-	22.6	+9.3
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	12.5	-	7.8	-4.7
6	IND	11.9	-	5.2	-6.7
5	TEN	12.8	-	13.8	+1.0
4	SEA	11.3	-	18.6	+7.3
3	SF	12.7	-	7.4	-5.3
2	CAR	14.0	-	4.7	-9.3
1	NO	13.9	-	18.1	+4.2

Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.94)
Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (KC vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM N/A (OUT)

Reasoning: STATUS: OUT - Concussion protocol. Did not practice Tuesday. Thursday Night Football makes clearance impossible. Projection: 0.0 pts.

Context: O/U: 36.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	17.2	11.0	12.1	-5.1
14	HOU	17.1	17.0	7.4	-9.7
13	DAL	18.1	18.4	29.4	+11.3
12	IND	17.6	-	24.1	+6.5
11	DEN	16.4	-	9.8	-6.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	18.4	-	18.6	+0.2
8	WSH	17.2	-	25.5	+8.2
7	LV	13.7	-	23.2	+9.5
6	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	BAL	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	NYG	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	PHI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	LAC	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Jameson Williams (DET vs MIN)

Projections: ESPN 13.4 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 29% BOOM, 44% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 12.6% boom, 42.6% bust (this week). HIGH BUST risk per XGB. MIN defense rank 6 vs WR (14.8 fppg) is tough. Big play ability keeps ceiling alive but floor is scary. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 12.0 pts (within MODERATE range 10-20).

Context: O/U: 43.5 | ECR: 12

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAR	13.9	18.0	26.4	+12.5
14	DAL	13.8	17.3	17.3	+3.5
13	GB	11.8	15.1	26.9	+15.1
12	NYG	12.9	-	0.0	-12.9
11	PHI	12.6	-	19.7	+7.1
10	WSH	12.1	-	23.9	+11.8
9	MIN	11.0	-	16.6	+5.6
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	TB	13.2	-	0.0	-13.2
6	KC	10.7	-	18.6	+7.9
5	CIN	11.8	-	2.0	-9.8
4	CLE	10.7	-	5.7	-5.0
3	BAL	12.9	-	6.3	-6.6
2	CHI	13.0	-	18.8	+5.8
1	GB	12.9	-	6.6	-6.3

3-game streak of beating projections
Trending up: 23.5 avg (last 3) vs 14.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.79)
Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Jayden Reed (GB vs BAL)

Projections: ESPN 9.8 | LLM 10.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 51% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 12.9% boom, 51.5% bust (this week). TIED TO JORDAN LOVE STATUS. If Love plays, BAL allows 19.8 fppg to WRs (22nd). If Willis plays, Reed capped. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.5 pts (if Love plays).

Context: O/U: 40.5 | ECR: 37

MC (Historical): BUST: 35% | MODERATE: 51% | BOOM: 15%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	DEN	10.0	-	10.5	+0.5
14	CHI	7.7	-	9.3	+1.6
13	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
12	MIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	NYG	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	PHI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	CAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	PIT	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	ARI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	CIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	DAL	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	CLE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	WSH	11.3	-	0.0	-11.3
1	DET	11.2	-	13.5	+2.3

Averaging 2.2 pts vs 2.7 projected (-17%)
Trending up: 6.6 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 2.10)
Season high: 13.5 pts in Week 1

Juwan Johnson (NO vs TEN)

Projections: ESPN 10.2 | LLM 9.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 30% BOOM, 45% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 18.8% boom, 56.0% bust (this week). TEN allows 7.3 fppg to TEs (19th). Only viable TE option. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.5 pts (within MODERATE range 6-12).

Context: O/U: 39.5 | ECR: 6

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 30%

XGB (This Week): Boom 19% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	CAR	9.7	10.0	7.0	-2.7
14	TB	9.7	10.0	7.8	-1.9
13	MIA	8.7	11.0	8.9	+0.2
12	ATL	9.3	-	10.6	+1.3
11	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	CAR	8.9	-	19.2	+10.2
9	LAR	8.3	-	12.1	+3.8
8	TB	9.6	-	10.3	+0.7
7	CHI	7.5	-	12.9	+5.4
6	NE	7.9	-	1.5	-6.4
5	NYG	7.9	-	3.7	-4.2
4	BUF	11.1	-	5.8	-5.3
3	SEA	10.6	-	11.1	+0.5
2	SF	9.1	-	15.9	+6.8
1	ARI	7.3	-	15.6	+8.3

Averaging 9.5 pts vs 8.4 projected (+13%)
Trending down: 7.9 avg (last 3) vs 9.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.57)
Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Tetairoa McMillan (WR) - CAR vs SEA

Projections: ESPN 12.3 | LLM 10.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22%

Notes: MC: 49% BUST, 37% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 16.9% boom, 21.5% bust (this week). SEA defense rank 2 vs WR (13.9 fppg) is TOUGH. Game total 42.5 but McMillan is WR2 in ARI. Upside capped. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 10.0 pts.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	NO	13.2	11.0	4.5	-8.7
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	LAR	13.2	13.0	11.3	-1.9
12	SF	16.3	-	11.5	-4.8
11	ATL	13.5	-	33.0	+19.5
10	NO	12.2	-	11.0	-1.2
9	GB	12.9	-	8.6	-4.3
8	BUF	13.4	-	16.9	+3.5
7	NYJ	12.5	-	6.3	-6.2
6	DAL	14.6	-	17.9	+3.3
5	MIA	14.2	-	13.3	-0.9
4	NE	14.2	-	10.2	-4.0
3	ATL	13.2	-	7.8	-5.4
2	ARI	13.5	-	16.0	+2.5
1	JAX	13.9	-	11.8	-2.1

Trending down: 5.3 avg (last 3) vs 18.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.62)
Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Rashee Rice (WR) - KC vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30%

Notes: STATUS: OUT - Concussion protocol. Did not practice Tuesday. Thursday Night Football makes clearance impossible. Projection: 0.0 pts.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	17.2	11.0	12.1	-5.1
14	HOU	17.1	17.0	7.4	-9.7
13	DAL	18.1	18.4	29.4	+11.3
12	IND	17.6	-	24.1	+6.5
11	DEN	16.4	-	9.8	-6.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	18.4	-	18.6	+0.2
8	WSH	17.2	-	25.5	+8.2
7	LV	13.7	-	23.2	+9.5
6	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	BAL	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	NYG	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	PHI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	LAC	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Tyjae Spears (RB) - TEN vs NO

Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38%

Notes: MC: 61% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 17.6% boom, 37.6% bust (this week). NO allows 17.5 fppg to RBs (20th). Backup role limits ceiling. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 8.0 pts (within MODERATE range 6-13).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	SF	10.0	6.0	5.6	-4.4
14	CLE	8.6	8.0	6.7	-1.9
13	JAX	9.9	8.0	8.4	-1.5
12	SEA	9.6	-	6.5	-3.1
11	HOU	9.0	-	8.4	-0.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	LAC	9.5	-	9.2	-0.3
8	IND	9.5	-	17.2	+7.7
7	NE	7.8	-	7.0	-0.8
6	LV	5.6	-	9.0	+3.4
5	ARI	5.4	-	1.4	-4.0
4	HOU	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

5-game streak of missing projections
Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Rams D/ST (D/ST) - LAR vs ATL

Projections: ESPN 5.4 | LLM 5.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 22%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 40% BUST, 39% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 10.6% boom, 59.7% bust (this week). ATL game total 49.5 is HIGH - not a D/ST friendly script. Mode: BUST. Projection: 5.0 pts (within BUST range 2-7).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	DET	4.2	4.0	-1.0	-5.2
14	ARI	6.9	9.0	6.0	-0.9
13	CAR	7.5	10.0	1.0	-6.5
12	TB	5.7	-	20.0	+14.3
11	SEA	5.4	-	5.0	-0.4
10	SF	6.4	-	5.0	-1.4
9	NO	8.2	-	10.0	+1.8
7	JAX	6.7	-	9.0	+2.3
6	BAL	6.2	-	16.0	+9.8
5	SF	7.0	-	-2.0	-9.0
4	IND	5.7	-	6.0	+0.3
3	PHI	5.2	-	7.0	+1.8
2	TEN	7.4	-	9.0	+1.6
1	HOU	5.6	-	12.0	+6.4

3-game streak of missing projections
Averaging 7.4 pts vs 6.3 projected (+17%)
Trending down: 2.0 avg (last 3) vs 10.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
Season high: 20.0 pts in Week 12

Devin Singletary (RB) - NYG vs LV

Projections: ESPN 9.3 | LLM 6.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 61% BUST (historical). XGB: 9.6% boom, 60.4% bust (this week). AGREEMENT - Both strongly favor bust. LV allows 18.0 fppg to RBs (24th - easier) but Singletary's workload is inconsistent. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6.5 pts (within BUST range 2-8).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	WSH	10.8	6.0	2.4	-8.4
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NE	6.3	-	19.2	+12.9
12	DET	9.9	-	4.7	-5.2
11	GB	9.6	-	17.7	+8.1
10	CHI	9.7	-	10.3	+0.6
9	SF	5.5	-	7.1	+1.6
8	PHI	1.2	-	3.8	+2.6
7	DEN	0.8	-	0.2	-0.6
6	PHI	1.0	-	1.0	+0.0
5	NO	6.0	-	3.4	-2.6
4	LAC	7.4	-	2.8	-4.6
3	KC	1.1	-	1.1	+0.0
2	DAL	3.2	-	1.0	-2.2
1	WSH	3.5	-	0.9	-2.6

Trending down: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.21)
Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Isiah Pacheco (RB) - KC vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 8.9 | LLM 9.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 70% BUST (historical). XGB: 11.9% boom, 59.9% bust (this week). MC/XGB favor bust BUT Pacheco is returning from injury with fresh legs. DEN allows 13.7 fppg to RBs (9th) is tough. With Rice likely OUT, could see more work. Mode: MODERATE (hopeful). Projection: 9.0 pts.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	7.2	-	2.1	-5.1
14	HOU	8.3	-	3.0	-5.3
13	DAL	9.7	-	5.3	-4.4
12	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	WSH	11.4	-	5.8	-5.6
7	LV	11.5	-	12.4	+0.9
6	DET	8.9	-	6.1	-2.8
5	JAX	7.7	-	8.6	+0.9
4	BAL	9.2	-	12.8	+3.6
3	NYG	11.1	-	5.8	-5.3
2	PHI	10.9	-	3.9	-7.0
1	LAC	12.8	-	4.8	-8.0

3-game streak of missing projections
Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Jayden Reed (WR) - GB vs BAL

Projections: ESPN 9.8 | LLM 10.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 35% | MODERATE: 51% | BOOM: 15%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52%

Notes: MC: 51% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 12.9% boom, 51.5% bust (this week). TIED TO JORDAN LOVE STATUS. If Love plays, BAL allows 19.8 fppg to WRs (22nd). If Willis plays, Reed capped. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.5 pts (if Love plays).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	DEN	10.0	-	10.5	+0.5
14	CHI	7.7	-	9.3	+1.6
13	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
12	MIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	NYG	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	PHI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	CAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	PIT	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	ARI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	CIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	DAL	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	CLE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	WSH	11.3	-	0.0	-11.3
1	DET	11.2	-	13.5	+2.3

Averaging 2.2 pts vs 2.7 projected (-17%)
Trending up: 6.6 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 2.10)
Season high: 13.5 pts in Week 1

Sam Darnold (QB) - SEA vs CAR

Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 16.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 38% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 44%

Notes: MC: 37% MODERATE, 25% BOOM (historical). XGB: 13.3% boom, 43.8% bust (this week). CAR defense rank 7 vs QB (15.9 fppg). Game total 42.5 is moderate. Seattle should control game, limiting upside. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.5 pts (within MODERATE range 13-22).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	IND	15.2	-	11.3	-3.8
14	ATL	14.3	-	22.3	+8.0
13	MIN	15.2	-	3.1	-12.1
12	TEN	15.2	-	17.7	+2.5
11	LAR	15.0	-	4.3	-10.8
10	ARI	16.6	-	4.9	-11.7
9	WSH	18.2	-	27.2	+8.9
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	HOU	14.9	-	8.6	-6.3
6	JAX	15.3	-	20.0	+4.7
5	TB	13.2	-	27.6	+14.4
4	ARI	13.0	-	16.1	+3.1
3	NO	14.1	-	16.7	+2.7
2	PIT	12.8	-	15.8	+3.0
1	SF	15.3	-	5.4	-9.9

Trending up: 12.2 avg (last 3) vs 8.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.66)
Season high: 27.6 pts in Week 5

High Threat Players (>35% Boom)

James Cook III (RB): 57% boom probability

Dak Prescott (QB): 51% boom probability

Jaylen Waddle (WR): 49% boom probability

Tyler Warren (TE): 41% boom probability

Opponent Starter Analysis

Player	Pos	Team	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Boom%	Mod%	Bust%	Threat
James Cook III	RB	BUF	17.2	16.5	MODERATE	57%	31%	12%	HIGH
Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	20.5	19.0	MODERATE	51%	34%	15%	HIGH
Jaylen Waddle	WR	MIA	13.2	14.0	MODERATE	49%	36%	15%	HIGH
Tyler Warren	TE	IND	12.1	11.0	MODERATE	41%	40%	19%	HIGH
Broncos D/ST	D/ST	DEN	8.9	9.0	MODERATE	29%	45%	26%	MEDIUM
Deebo Samuel	WR	WSH	11.9	13.5	MODERATE	27%	52%	22%	MEDIUM
De'Von Achane	RB	MIA	22.3	20.0	MODERATE	13%	64%	23%	LOW
Cairo Santos	K	CHI	8.4	7.0	BUST	13%	28%	59%	LOW
DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	12.4	13.0	MODERATE	9%	48%	43%	LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

James Cook III: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 23%) | XGB (Boom 57% | Bust 12%)

Dak Prescott: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 27%) | XGB (Boom 51% | Bust 15%)

Jaylen Waddle: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 44%) | XGB (Boom 49% | Bust 15%)

Tyler Warren: MC (BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 41% | Bust 19%)

Broncos D/ST: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 29% | Bust 26%)

Deebo Samuel: MC (BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 31%) | XGB (Boom 27% | Bust 22%)

De'Von Achane: MC (BUST: 4% | MODERATE: 78% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 23%)

Cairo Santos: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 30% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 59%)

DeVonta Smith: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 10%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 43%)

Add/Drop Recommendations

Season Phase: Playoffs - Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster

🎯 Priority Pickups (Injury/Opportunity Based)

Maximize ceiling for must-win championship matchup. Rashee Rice OUT creates urgent need.

#1 Hunter Henry (TE, NE)

vs vs NYJ (Average (18th vs TE, 6.9 fppg))

ESPN: 10.7 Trend: NEUTRAL DROP: Rashee Rice (move to IR) or Rams D/ST

Consistent TE1 option. With Juwan Johnson as only TE, could use backup. Jets allow average TE production. Hunter Henry has 10+ pts in multiple recent games.

Week 17: Solid floor play if Juwan Johnson disappoints

#2 Quentin Johnston (WR, LAC)

vs vs HOU (Tough (4th vs WR, 14.4 fppg))

ESPN: 8.3 Trend: MODERATE DROP: Tetairoa McMillan or Devin Singletary

Stacks with Chargers offense. Even in tough matchup, Herbert's WR2 has boom potential. Could replace injured Rice's ceiling.

Week 17: Chargers playing for playoff seeding

#3 Rashid Shaheed (WR, SEA)

vs vs CAR (Decent (12th vs WR, 16.7 fppg))

ESPN: 9.4 Trend: NEUTRAL DROP: Devin Singletary

Deep threat in Seattle. With DK Metcalf traded to Steelers, more targets available. Stacks with JSN and Darnold in SEA @ CAR game.

Week 17: Boom-or-bust deep threat

#4 J.K. Dobbins (RB, LAC)

vs vs HOU (Tough (8th vs RB, 13.4 fppg))

ESPN: 0.0 Trend: INJURY RETURN DROP: N/A - monitor

If Dobbins returns from injury, he's a LAC RB option that could eat into Hampton's work. Monitor practice reports.

Week 17: Stash if available, could be emergency RB

⚠️ Players to Avoid

Keenan Allen (WR)

69% BUST probability per MC. Season avg 11.3 but very inconsistent. Don't chase name recognition.

Garrett Wilson (WR)

On IR, won't play Week 17.

Jayden Daniels (QB)

Listed as OUT. Don't roster injured players in championship week.

📋 Quick Summary

MOVE Rashee Rice to IR slot to free roster spot
If Jordan Love ruled OUT: Start Jacoby Brissett (already planned)
Consider ADD Hunter Henry if wanting TE insurance
HOLD all starting RBs despite tough matchups - volume matters in playoffs

MC-Based Analysis (Auto-Generated)

Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.

Protected Players (8): Sam Darnold (Elite ceiling (34 pts)), Isiah Pacheco (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Jayden Reed (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Rashee Rice (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Rams D/ST (Elite ceiling (25 pts))

ADD J.K. Dobbins RB,

Boom%47%

Bust%20%

EV12.2

BUST: 47% (4-11) MODERATE: 39% (8-20) BOOM: 14% (13-28)

ADD Jayden Daniels QB,

Boom%34%

Bust%30%

EV0.0

OUT: 100% (0-0)

ADD Evan Engram TE,

Boom%27%

Bust%24%

EV7.9

BUST: 34% (-0-6) MODERATE: 45% (4-13) BOOM: 20% (9-21)

ADD Jordan Love QB,

Boom%27%

Bust%21%

EV16.6

BUST: 26% (2-14) MODERATE: 53% (9-24) BOOM: 21% (18-36)

ADD Commanders D/ST D/ST,

Boom%24%

Bust%38%

EV7.7

BUST: 37% (-3-9) MODERATE: 39% (2-14) BOOM: 24% (7-22)

Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoffs mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

Player	Pos	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%	Own%
J.K. Dobbins	RB	12.2	47%	20%	0.0%
Jayden Daniels	QB	0.0	34%	30%	0.0%
Evan Engram	TE	7.9	27%	24%	0.0%
Jordan Love	QB	16.6	27%	21%	0.0%
Commanders D/ST	D/ST	7.7	24%	38%	0.0%
Bears D/ST	D/ST	8.4	20%	30%	0.0%
Matt Prater	K	8.0	19%	54%	0.0%
Cooper Kupp	WR	10.1	18%	48%	0.0%
Devin Neal	RB	9.5	18%	45%	0.0%
Giants D/ST	D/ST	6.7	18%	46%	0.0%
Harrison Mevis	K	8.9	16%	48%	0.0%
Dolphins D/ST	D/ST	8.3	15%	55%	0.0%
Quentin Johnston	WR	11.8	15%	39%	0.0%
Garrett Wilson	WR	14.7	15%	48%	0.0%
49ers D/ST	D/ST	8.0	14%	51%	0.0%

QB Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Jayden Daniels	0.0	OUT:100%	34%	30%
Jordan Love	16.6	BUST:26%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:21%	27%	21%
Sam Darnold	15.4	BUST:38%, MODERATE:37%, BOOM:25%	13%	44%
Kyler Murray	16.8	BUST:17%, MODERATE:57%, BOOM:26%	11%	54%

RB Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
J.K. Dobbins	12.2	BUST:47%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:14%	47%	20%
Devin Neal	9.5	BUST:35%, MODERATE:46%, BOOM:19%	18%	45%
Trey Benson	8.6	BUST:34%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:24%	12%	57%
Quinshon Judkins	11.7	BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32%	9%	64%
Emanuel Wilson	7.7	BUST:55%, MODERATE:35%, BOOM:10%	9%	60%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	9.4	BUST:54%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:12%	8%	61%

WR Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Cooper Kupp	10.1	BUST:46%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:12%	18%	48%
Quentin Johnston	11.8	BUST:29%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:18%	15%	39%
Garrett Wilson	14.7	BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22%	15%	48%
Rashid Shaheed	10.3	BUST:28%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:30%	14%	53%
Keenan Allen	11.7	BUST:69%, MODERATE:22%, BOOM:9%	9%	56%

TE Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Evan Engram	7.9	BUST:34%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:20%	27%	24%
Hunter Henry	9.7	BUST:45%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:12%	8%	62%
Oronde Gadsden	13.8	BOOM:10%, MODERATE:40%, BUST:50%	0%	0%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

Player	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%
Matt Prater	8.0	19%	54%
Harrison Mevis	8.9	16%	48%
Evan McPherson	9.6	9%	60%

D/ST Streamers

Player	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%
Commanders D/ST	7.7	24%	38%
Bears D/ST	8.4	20%	30%
Giants D/ST	6.7	18%	46%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 17 | Generated: 2025-12-24 10:35

Matchup Summary

48.0%

Win Probability

-2.0

Expected Margin

121.0

My Team (LLM Proj)

123.0

Opponent (Proj)

30.5

Margin Std Dev

120.0

My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -37.6 pts | Median: +1.7 pts | Ceiling: +40.6 pts

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Jacoby Brissett	QB	MED	21.0	4.4-28.0	↑15+: 65% \| ↓5-: 12%
Bucky Irving	RB	HIGH	14.5	5.1-23.8	↑15+: 40% \| ↓5-: 10%
Omarion Hampton	RB	HIGH	12.5	3.6-24.2	↑15+: 33% \| ↓5-: 18%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	MED	18.5	6.3-30.0	↑15+: 63% \| ↓5-: 4%
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	HIGH	15.0	3.7-22.0	↑15+: 32% \| ↓5-: 18%
Jameson Williams	WR	HIGH	12.0	4.2-26.4	↑15+: 51% \| ↓5-: 14%
Juwan Johnson	TE	HIGH	9.5	2.9-16.6	↑15+: 15% \| ↓5-: 23%
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	9.0	1.0-18.1	↑15+: 20% \| ↓5-: 27%
Jason Myers	K	MED	9.0	5.4-19.1	↑15+: 27% \| ↓5-: 7%

Bench

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Sam Darnold	QB	HIGH	16.5	3.9-27.3	↑15+: 50% \| ↓5-: 16%
Tyjae Spears	RB	HIGH	8.0	2.6-18.0	↑15+: 16% \| ↓5-: 30%
Devin Singletary	RB	HIGH	6.5	0.6-17.9	↑15+: 16% \| ↓5-: 54%
Isiah Pacheco	RB	HIGH	9.0	2.3-15.5	↑15+: 11% \| ↓5-: 42%
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	HIGH	10.0	4.9-25.0	↑15+: 27% \| ↓5-: 11%
Jayden Reed	WR	HIGH	10.5	4.5-22.7	↑15+: 25% \| ↓5-: 13%
Rams D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	5.0	1.2-18.5	↑15+: 19% \| ↓5-: 34%

IR

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust	Distribution
Rashee Rice	WR	MED	0.0	6.7-27.3	↑15+: 52% \| ↓5-: 3%

Opponent

Starters

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Dak Prescott	QB	MED	19.0	7.6-29.9	↑15+: 64% \| ↓5-: 3%
De'Von Achane	RB	MED	20.0	10.8-31.2	↑15+: 65% \| ↓5-: 3%
James Cook III	RB	MED	16.5	6.2-27.4	↑15+: 52% \| ↓5-: 4%
DeVonta Smith	WR	HIGH	13.0	4.5-24.6	↑15+: 36% \| ↓5-: 14%
Jaylen Waddle	WR	HIGH	14.0	3.2-22.5	↑15+: 37% \| ↓5-: 20%
Deebo Samuel	WR	HIGH	13.5	3.6-22.5	↑15+: 33% \| ↓5-: 20%
Tyler Warren	TE	HIGH	11.0	3.3-18.3	↑15+: 21% \| ↓5-: 21%
Broncos D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	9.0	0.8-17.9	↑15+: 18% \| ↓5-: 31%
Cairo Santos	K	HIGH	7.0	3.8-16.3	↑15+: 14% \| ↓5-: 23%

Bench

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Trevor Lawrence	QB	HIGH	18.8	8.4-31.8	↑15+: 62% \| ↓5-: 2%
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	RB	HIGH	7.5	1.8-14.4	↑15+: 9% \| ↓5-: 35%
Chimere Dike	WR	HIGH	10.0	1.7-21.1	↑15+: 28% \| ↓5-: 36%
Dallas Goedert	TE	HIGH	11.9	3.8-23.3	↑15+: 29% \| ↓5-: 20%
Taysom Hill	TE	HIGH	5.4	0.7-13.7	↑15+: 8% \| ↓5-: 71%
Buccaneers D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	10.1	1.4-21.1	↑15+: 26% \| ↓5-: 32%
Chase McLaughlin	K	HIGH	9.2	2.7-16.8	↑15+: 16% \| ↓5-: 25%

Scenario Details

Player	Position	BOOM	MODERATE	BUST	EV
Bucky Irving	RB	17% @ 24.3	59% @ 14.2	25% @ 5.9	13.9
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	27% @ 28.7	44% @ 18.4	29% @ 7.6	18.0
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	27% @ 20.1	43% @ 12.0	31% @ 5.2	12.1
Omarion Hampton	RB	25% @ 23.1	43% @ 12.1	32% @ 5.2	12.6
Jason Myers	K	25% @ 18.3	44% @ 11.9	31% @ 6.5	11.8
Juwan Johnson	TE	30% @ 14.9	45% @ 8.8	25% @ 3.8	9.4
Jameson Williams	WR	29% @ 24.4	44% @ 15.6	28% @ 5.4	15.3
Jacoby Brissett	QB	74% @ 21.4	2% @ 14.7	24% @ 6.0	17.5
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	36% @ 15.0	42% @ 8.4	22% @ 2.8	9.5

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

Player	Pos	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Boom%	Mod%	Bust%
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	6.3	9.0	MODERATE	55.0%	29.8%	15.2%
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	12.9	15.0	MODERATE	42.3%	35.3%	22.4%
Rashee Rice	WR	13.7	0.0	OUT	24.9%	45.3%	29.8%
Jason Myers	K	8.4	9.0	MODERATE	23.2%	55.1%	21.6%
Juwan Johnson	TE	10.2	9.5	MODERATE	18.8%	25.1%	56.0%
Tyjae Spears	RB	9.9	8.0	MODERATE	17.6%	44.8%	37.6%
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	12.3	10.0	MODERATE	16.9%	61.6%	21.5%
Jacoby Brissett	QB	20.3	21.0	BOOM	13.5%	50.0%	36.4%
Sam Darnold	QB	15.9	16.5	MODERATE	13.3%	42.9%	43.8%
Bucky Irving	RB	14.7	14.5	MODERATE	12.9%	38.9%	48.2%
Jayden Reed	WR	9.8	10.5	MODERATE	12.9%	35.6%	51.5%
Jameson Williams	WR	13.4	12.0	MODERATE	12.6%	44.9%	42.6%
Isiah Pacheco	RB	8.9	9.0	MODERATE	11.9%	28.2%	59.9%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	21.8	18.5	MODERATE	11.4%	66.0%	22.6%
Rams D/ST	D/ST	5.4	5.0	BUST	10.6%	29.7%	59.7%
Devin Singletary	RB	9.3	6.5	BUST	9.6%	30.1%	60.4%
Omarion Hampton	RB	14.9	12.5	MODERATE	9.0%	33.3%	57.7%

League Standings

Week 17 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.

Rank	Team	Record	PF (Total)	PA (Total)	+/-	This Week	Streak	Playoff %
1	Kitty's Piggy Skins	10-5	1861.3	1676.5	+184.8	0.0 vs 0.0	L1	100.0%
2	4th and pinches	10-5	1771.1	1765.4	+5.7	0.0 vs 0.0	W2	100.0%
3	Valued Customers ←	9-6	1822.8	1558.6	+264.2	0.0 vs 0.0	W5	100.0%
4	Ryan's Rowdy Team	8-7	1759.9	1725.0	+35.0	0.0 vs 0.0	W1	100.0%
5	Wookie of the Year	8-7	1705.9	1731.9	-26.0	0.0 vs 0.0	L1	0.0%
6	Meat Pistols	8-7	1515.0	1664.9	-149.9	0.0 vs 0.0	L2	0.0%
7	Torta Pounders Football Club	7-8	1730.5	1674.7	+55.9	0.0 vs 0.0	L2	0.0%
8	Moms rules	7-8	1664.9	1778.5	-113.6	0.0 vs 0.0	W1	0.0%
9	Smooth Roosters	7-8	1664.4	1646.9	+17.5	0.0 vs 0.0	W3	0.0%
10	The Warsaw Pact	6-9	1653.5	1752.0	-98.5	0.0 vs 0.0	W2	0.0%
11	Chupi and the End Zone Bandits	6-9	1584.0	1689.6	-105.6	0.0 vs 0.0	L5	0.0%
12	Auto DraftKings	4-11	1697.9	1767.4	-69.5	0.0 vs 0.0	L4	0.0%

Week 17 Matchups

Away Team		Home Team
Kitty's Piggy Skins	@	Valued Customers
4th and pinches	@	Ryan's Rowdy Team
Wookie of the Year	@	Moms rules
Meat Pistols	@	The Warsaw Pact
Torta Pounders Football Club	@	Auto DraftKings
Smooth Roosters	@	Chupi and the End Zone Bandits

Season Points Trend

Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.

Weekly Points

Cumulative Points

Week 17 Research Analysis - Championship Week

Updated: December 24, 2024 (Wednesday)

🚨 CRITICAL INJURY ALERTS

RASHEE RICE (WR, KC) - OUT - Status: Concussion protocol, did NOT practice Tuesday - Game: Thursday Night Football vs Broncos (Dec 26) - Impact: With short week, virtually impossible to clear protocol - Action: MUST bench - move to IR or bench slot - Source: SportingNews, DraftSharks

JORDAN LOVE (QB, GB) - QUESTIONABLE - Status: Concussion protocol from Week 16 vs Bears hit - Complication: Backup Malik Willis ALSO injured (shoulder) - Game: Saturday vs Ravens (Dec 28) - Impact: High-risk start even if cleared - consider benching for Brissett - Source: PackersWire, Yahoo Sports

SAM DARNOLD (QB, SEA) - Healthy, starting for Seattle JACOBY BRISSETT (QB, ARI) - Healthy, starting for Arizona

📊 VEGAS GAME ENVIRONMENTS

HIGH-SCORING GAMES (O/U 48+) - ARI @ CIN: 52.5 O/U → ELITE for Brissett, MHJ (Bengals D weak) - DAL @ WSH: 51.5 O/U → Opponent's Dak Prescott, Deebo Samuel benefit - CHI @ SF: 52.5 O/U → Opponent's Cairo Santos in shootout

MODERATE GAMES (O/U 40-48) - TB @ MIA: 45.5 O/U → Bucky Irving faces Dolphins - PHI @ BUF: 44.5 O/U → Opponent's Cook, DeVonta Smith - DET @ MIN: 43.5 O/U → Jameson Williams vs tough MIN D (rank 6) - SEA @ CAR: 42.5 O/U → JSN, Sam Darnold, Jason Myers

LOW-SCORING GAMES (O/U < 40) - DEN @ KC: 36.5 O/U → CONCERNING for KC offense (Rice likely OUT) - LAC @ HOU: 39.5 O/U → Omarion Hampton, Chargers D/ST

🏈 MATCHUP ANALYSIS BY TIER

ELITE MATCHUPS (Start with Confidence) 1. Jacoby Brissett vs CIN - Bengals allow 22.2 fppg to QBs (27th), O/U 52.5 - MC: 74% BOOM historical - Verdict: HIGH-ceiling play in shootout

Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs CAR - Panthers allow 16.7 fppg to WRs (12th), O/U 42.5
With Metcalf suspended from Steelers (different game), JSN is WR1
MC: 27% BOOM, 44% MODERATE
Verdict: Rock-solid WR1
Marvin Harrison Jr. vs CIN - Bengals allow 15.3 fppg to WRs (7th... wait, that's GOOD defense)
BUT: High O/U (52.5) + ARI likely trailing = garbage time
MC: 27% BOOM
Verdict: Boom-or-bust, but game script favors passing

GOOD MATCHUPS 4. Bucky Irving vs MIA - Dolphins allow 15.4 fppg to RBs (14th), O/U 45.5 - Healthy, RB1 role - MC: 59% MODERATE, 17% BOOM - Verdict: Safe floor, decent ceiling

Juwan Johnson vs TEN - Titans allow 7.3 fppg to TEs (19th)
Moderate matchup, but only TE option
MC: 30% BOOM
Verdict: Serviceable TE1

TOUGH MATCHUPS 6. Jameson Williams vs MIN - Vikings allow 14.8 fppg to WRs (6th) - XGB: 42.6% BUST probability - MIN defense is legit - MC: 29% BOOM, 28% BUST - Verdict: High-variance play

Omarion Hampton vs HOU - Texans allow 13.4 fppg to RBs (8th)
XGB: 57.7% BUST probability
Tough matchup + low O/U (39.5)
Verdict: Concerning, but still start as RB2

AVOID/BENCH 8. Rashee Rice vs DEN - OUT with concussion 9. Jordan Love vs BAL - Questionable + tough matchup (BAL D rank 14 vs QB) 10. Jayden Reed vs BAL - If Love doesn't play, Reed capped

🎯 GAME STACKING CORRELATION ANALYSIS

CRITICAL SWING GAME: TB @ MIA (50.2 combined pts) - We have: Bucky Irving (14.7) - Opponent has: De'Von Achane (22.3), Jaylen Waddle (13.2) - NEGATIVE CORRELATION: If MIA offense explodes, opponent benefits more - IF TB gets blowout lead → Bucky runs clock, good for us - IF MIA gets lead → Achane/Waddle rack up points, bad for us - VERDICT: Need competitive game, prefer TB lead

KC vs DEN STACK (31.5 combined pts) - We have: Rashee Rice (13.7 - likely OUT), Isiah Pacheco (8.9) - Opponent has: Broncos D/ST (8.9) - With Rice OUT, our exposure drops to just Pacheco (8.9) - Broncos D/ST could feast if KC offense struggles without Rice - VERDICT: Opponent's Broncos D/ST is a CONCERN

SEA @ CAR (58.4 pts - ALL OURS) - We have: JSN (21.8), Sam Darnold (15.9), Jason Myers (8.4), T-Mac (12.3) - No opponent players in this game - POSITIVE for us: All upside, no hedge needed - HIGH game total exposure

📋 LINEUP RECOMMENDATIONS

MUST START: - Jacoby Brissett (QB) - Elite matchup, high O/U - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR) - Locked in as WR1 - Bucky Irving (RB) - Healthy, workhorse role - Omarion Hampton (RB) - Despite tough matchup, volume play

FLEX CONSIDERATIONS: - Marvin Harrison Jr. - High ceiling in shootout - Jameson Williams - Boom/bust but talent is there - Juwan Johnson - Only TE, start by default

BENCH: - Rashee Rice - OUT (concussion) - Jordan Love - Concussion protocol, even if plays is risky - Jayden Reed - Tied to Love's status - Tyjae Spears - Backup role - Devin Singletary - Low upside

D/ST CHOICE: - Chargers D/ST vs HOU (6.3) - XGB: 55% BOOM prob - Rams D/ST vs ATL (5.4) - Worse matchup

🏆 WIN PROBABILITY ANALYSIS

Matchup: Valued Customers vs Kitty's Piggy Skins

ESPN Projections: - Us: 122.8 pts - Them: 127.0 pts

KEY SWING FACTORS: 1. If Rashee Rice is OUT (likely) → We lose ~13 pts, need replacement 2. If Jordan Love is OUT → We likely start Brissett (upgrade in this matchup) 3. TB @ MIA game script → Determines ~50 pts of combined exposure

OPPONENT THREATS: - De'Von Achane (22.3) - Explosive RB, TD-dependent boom - Dak Prescott (20.5) - Good matchup vs WSH - James Cook III (17.2) - Consistent producer

VERDICT: Slight underdog but winnable if: 1. We pivot off injured players correctly 2. JSN/Brissett hit their ceilings 3. TB game stays competitive

Reddit Insights

Hot Topics

Lamar Jackson day-to-day with back bruise
Chris Olave best game of career (10/136/1)
D'Andre Swift barely leads Chicago backfield

Sources

Waiver Wire Notes

No waiver recommendations this week.

Injury Concerns

No major injury concerns.

Crystal Society Debates

Multi-agent analysis for strategic decisions (Week 17)

D/ST selection: Should we start Chargers D/ST (vs HOU), pick up Bears D/ST (vs SF) from waivers, or consider 49ers D/ST (@ CHI)? Championship week decision.

Round 1: Opening Arguments

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

Chargers D/ST offers the highest boom ceiling with XGB projecting 55.0% BOOM probability (highest on roster) and MC showing 35.9% boom rate. Houston ranks 31st in pass block win rate and has scored 20 or fewer points in 3 of last 5 games, while LAC defense has allowed ≤20 points in 7 of last 8 games and forced 8 turnovers in last 4 weeks.

🔽 FLOOR HIGH

DROP: Rams D/ST | ADD: 49ers D/ST

The 49ers defense faces a Bears offense that ranks among the worst in the NFL. The Chargers face nightmare scenario of CJ Stroud - when elite QBs get pressured they can explode. 49ers have highest rolling average at 11.1 pts with back-to-back double digit games.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

Chargers D/ST offers best risk-adjusted EV. With MC EV of 9.6 (highest), XGB boom 55%, and only 15.2% bust risk, the Chargers provide 3.62x boom-to-bust ratio vs Rams 0.18x ratio. In close championship (+6 favored), cannot afford Rams 59.7% bust.

🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM-HIGH

DROP: Rams D/ST | ADD: 49ers D/ST

Everyone chasing Chargers 55% XGB boom ignores XGB forward validation is only 37-44% accurate. 49ers have HIGHEST rolling avg (11.1) facing Bears offense with Caleb Williams who took 68 sacks as rookie. Texans on 7-game win streak - not an easy matchup.

Fact Check

✅ CEILING: "XGB 55% boom probability" CORRECT

✅ CEILING: "8 turnovers in 4 weeks" CORRECT

✅ CEILING: "≤20 pts allowed in 7/8 games" CORRECT

✅ FLOOR: "49ers 11.1 rolling avg highest" CORRECT

✅ SYNTHESIS: "MC EV 9.6 for Chargers" CORRECT

✅ SYNTHESIS: "Rams 59.7% bust probability" CORRECT

✅ CONTRARIAN: "XGB 37-44% forward accuracy" CORRECT

✅ CONTRARIAN: "Texans 7-game win streak" CORRECT

✅ CONTRARIAN: "Williams 68 sacks as rookie" CORRECT

✅ CONTRARIAN: "49ers 10-12 in consecutive weeks" CORRECT

❌ CEILING: "Houston 31st pass block" FALSE (actual: Likely false - 31 sacks allowed suggests better ranking)

❌ FLOOR: "Texans 41 sacks allowed" FALSE (actual: 31 sacks in 2025 (not 41))

❌ FLOOR: "Stroud 20:12 TD:INT ratio" FALSE (actual: 16 TDs, 6 INTs (16:6))

❌ SYNTHESIS: "3.67x boom-to-bust ratio" FALSE (actual: 3.62x ratio)

Round 2: Rebuttals

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] Accept fact-check penalty for unverified Houston pass blocking claim. Should have used verified metric: Houston 31 sacks allowed. [Challenge ] 41 sacks and 20:12 TD:INT [Concede] CONTRARIAN correctly identified XGB calibration issues (44% accuracy). XGB 55% boom should not be treated as precise forecast.

🔽 FLOOR MEDIUM

DROP: Rams D/ST | ADD:

[Ack] I RETRACT my false claims: Texans 41 sacks (actual: 31), Stroud 20:12 TD:INT (actual: 16:6). Used incorrect 2024 data. -0.30 penalty deserved. [Challenge ] Houston 31st pass block [Concede] Given my credibility damage and CONTRARIAN's perfect accuracy, I must pivot. Texans offense is significantly better than I portrayed.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] Minor calculation error: 3.67x should be 3.62x. Accept -0.02 penalty. [Challenge ] XGB unreliability invalidates Chargers [Concede] FLOOR's -0.30 penalty shows 49ers case was built on false data.

🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM-HIGH

DROP: Rams D/ST | ADD:

[Ack] Fact-check confirmed 100% accuracy on all my claims. Distancing from FLOOR's flawed analysis. [Challenge ] Over-reliance on XGB 55% [Concede] Chargers have verifiable defensive excellence. Texans 7-game streak bleeding D/ST points is real. Championship needs ceiling over floor.

Consensus: Majority

START Chargers D/ST, DROP Rams D/ST

0/4 agents agree

Week 17 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

11.0

Our Team MAE

17 players

13.7

Opponent MAE

9 players

0.0

Free Agent MAE

1 players

Players Tracked

Combined MAE: 11.5

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category	Pos	Player	ESPN	LLM	Error
Our Team	QB	Jacoby Brissett	20.3	21.0	-21.0
Opponent	RB	De'Von Achane	22.3	20.0	-20.0
Opponent	QB	Dak Prescott	20.5	19.0	-19.0
Our Team	WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	21.8	18.5	-18.5
Our Team	QB	Sam Darnold	15.9	16.5	-16.5
Opponent	RB	James Cook III	17.2	16.5	-16.5
Our Team	WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	12.9	15.0	-15.0
Our Team	RB	Bucky Irving	14.7	14.5	-14.5
Opponent	WR	Jaylen Waddle	13.2	14.0	-14.0
Opponent	WR	Deebo Samuel	11.9	13.5	-13.5
Opponent	WR	DeVonta Smith	12.4	13.0	-13.0
Our Team	RB	Omarion Hampton	14.9	12.5	-12.5
Our Team	WR	Jameson Williams	13.4	12.0	-12.0
Opponent	TE	Tyler Warren	12.1	11.0	-11.0
Our Team	WR	Jayden Reed	9.8	10.5	-10.5
Our Team	WR	Tetairoa McMillan	12.3	10.0	-10.0
Our Team	TE	Juwan Johnson	10.2	9.5	-9.5
Our Team	K	Jason Myers	8.4	9.0	-9.0
Our Team	D/ST	Chargers D/ST	6.3	9.0	-9.0
Our Team	RB	Isiah Pacheco	8.9	9.0	-9.0
Opponent	D/ST	Broncos D/ST	8.9	9.0	-9.0
Our Team	RB	Tyjae Spears	9.9	8.0	-8.0
Opponent	K	Cairo Santos	8.4	7.0	-7.0
Our Team	RB	Devin Singletary	9.3	6.5	-6.5
Our Team	D/ST	Rams D/ST	5.4	5.0	-5.0
Our Team	WR	Rashee Rice	13.7	0.0	+0.0
Free Agent	QB	Sam Darnold	0.0	-	+0.0

Week 16 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_007 (2025-12-20)

6.2

Our Team MAE

17 players

4.3

Opponent MAE

9 players

8.4

Free Agent MAE

6 players

Players Tracked

Combined MAE: 6.1

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category	Pos	Player	ESPN	LLM	Actual	Error
Free Agent	K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	0.0	-	16.0	+16.0
Free Agent	RB	Isiah Pacheco	0.0	-	13.5	+13.5
Our Team	RB	Tyjae Spears	8.7	10.0	21.5	+11.5
Our Team	QB	Jordan Love	17.4	15.0	3.8	-11.2
Free Agent	K	Eddy Pineiro	0.0	-	11.0	+11.0
Our Team	QB	Jacoby Brissett	18.8	21.0	10.6	-10.4
Opponent	TE	Trey McBride	16.8	-	6.7	-10.1
Our Team	WR	Jameson Williams	15.9	22.0	12.0	-10.0
Our Team	WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	14.2	12.0	2.4	-9.6
Our Team	D/ST	Chargers D/ST	4.2	12.0	4.0	-8.0
Our Team	TE	Juwan Johnson	9.1	9.0	16.9	+7.9
Our Team	RB	Isiah Pacheco	9.1	6.0	13.5	+7.5
Our Team	RB	Bucky Irving	15.2	14.0	7.1	-6.9
Opponent	RB	Rico Dowdle	15.2	-	8.3	-6.9
Our Team	WR	Tetairoa McMillan	13.1	13.0	19.3	+6.3
Our Team	WR	Jayden Reed	11.2	13.0	7.1	-5.9
Opponent	WR	DK Metcalf	13.5	-	8.2	-5.3
Our Team	WR	Rashee Rice	17.8	5.0	0.0	-5.0
Free Agent	D/ST	Patriots D/ST	0.0	-	5.0	+5.0
Opponent	RB	Michael Carter	11.0	-	6.5	-4.5
Free Agent	D/ST	Chargers D/ST	0.0	-	4.0	+4.0
Opponent	QB	Baker Mayfield	16.6	-	12.7	-3.9
Opponent	D/ST	Jaguars D/ST	5.6	-	2.0	-3.6
Our Team	RB	Omarion Hampton	13.2	13.0	16.5	+3.5
Opponent	K	Harrison Butker	8.0	-	11.0	+3.0
Our Team	RB	Devin Singletary	7.5	4.0	5.6	+1.6
Opponent	RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	23.8	-	22.8	-1.0
Free Agent	D/ST	Chiefs D/ST	0.0	-	1.0	+1.0
Opponent	WR	Michael Wilson	13.4	-	13.2	-0.2
Our Team	WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	19.9	23.6	23.6	+0.0
Our Team	K	Jason Myers	8.1	2.0	2.0	+0.0
Our Team	D/ST	Rams D/ST	5.7	4.0	4.0	+0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

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LLM vs ESPN Comparison

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 17 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.